* ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  IRMA        AL112017  09/08/17  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND   130   127   129   133   134   137   135   128   117   100    83    61    47
V (KT) LAND      130   127   129   133   134   137   119    68    41    31    28    27    27
V (KT) LGEM      130   124   121   122   124   130   129    67    40    31    28    27    27
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         6     5     7     6     7     9    15    24    29    41    42    38    34
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1     1    -3    -2     1     0     6     2     5     2    -9     2     5
SHEAR DIR        303   288   270   272   308   255   245   224   210   204   206   215   223
SST (C)         29.7  29.7  29.8  29.9  30.0  29.9  30.0  29.9  29.4  28.5  26.9  25.8  24.9
POT. INT. (KT)   165   164   166   167   169   167   169   168   159   146   124   111   102
ADJ. POT. INT.   157   153   153   153   152   149   150   149   141   128   106    92    86
200 MB T (C)   -51.1 -50.4 -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.1 -49.7 -48.9 -48.7 -47.9 -48.1 -48.9 -50.3
200 MB VXT (C)   1.4   1.1   1.0   1.0   0.9   1.1   1.5   1.9   1.7   2.0   1.5   2.3   1.9
TH_E DEV (C)      13    13    13    13    12    11     8     6     1     1     0     1     0
700-500 MB RH     56    59    62    65    66    65    63    61    60    55    48    42    37
MODEL VTX (KT)    37    36    38    39    39    44    50    52    50    42    33    20    13
850 MB ENV VOR    55    73    79    86    94   131   141   149   165   158   169   139   101
200 MB DIV        29    49    66    54    59    76    98    57   122    83    45    -4   -13
700-850 TADV      11     6     7     7     8    14    31    35    60    61     6    11     6
LAND (KM)        128   112    87    61    66   102    -4   -76   -71  -183  -434  -570  -622
LAT (DEG N)     21.8  22.1  22.4  22.7  22.9  23.9  25.2  27.0  29.2  31.6  34.3  35.7  36.3
LONG(DEG W)     74.7  75.9  77.0  78.0  78.9  80.2  80.9  81.4  82.1  83.3  85.2  86.6  87.8
STM SPEED (KT)    13    11    10     9     8     8     8    10    12    14    12     7     6
HEAT CONTENT      59    53    60    49    70    59    83    53    31    13     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14      CX,CY: -13/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND: 150            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  696  (MEAN=618)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   6.8 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            0.0

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL         -0.   0.   0.  -1.  -7. -16. -27. -37. -46. -54. -61. -69.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG    -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -0.   2.   6.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -0.   0.   0.   1.   1.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   2.   3.
  PERSISTENCE           -4.  -4.  -2.  -1.   1.   0.  -2.  -1.   1.   3.   4.   3.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -9. -11. -13.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  700-500 MB RH         -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY    -0.   0.   1.   1.   6.  13.  16.  14.   2. -10. -27. -36.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   4.   4.   5.   7.   8.   9.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC       -0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   3.   3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES   -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE          -3.  -1.   3.   4.   7.   5.  -2. -13. -30. -47. -69. -83.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):  130. LAT, LON:   21.8    74.7

      ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA       09/08/17  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   -20.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.36         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     6.3      30.1  to    2.9       0.87         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    58.2       0.0  to  156.2       0.37         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.1       2.4  to   -3.0       0.47         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :     6.8      36.6  to    2.8       0.88         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :   130.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.00           0.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :    23.5      28.4  to  139.6       0.00           0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    51.4     -29.7  to  181.5       0.38         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   621.0     961.4  to  -67.1       0.33         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     6.0     100.0  to    0.0       0.94         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   4% is   0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  10% is   0.9 times sample mean (11.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     4.3%    9.8%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     3.5%    2.9%    2.1%    1.1%    0.7%    0.9%    0.2%    0.0%
    Bayesian:     3.1%    1.1%    1.0%    0.3%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     3.6%    4.6%    1.0%    0.5%    0.3%    0.3%    0.1%    0.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA       09/08/17  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA       09/08/2017  12 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)   ***    ***(***)     ***(***)     ***(***)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)     ER     ERR          ERR          ERR         PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130   127   129   133   134   137   119    68    41    31    28    27    27
 18HR AGO          130   129   131   135   136   139   121    70    43    33    30    29    29
 12HR AGO          130   127   126   130   131   134   116    65    38    28    25    24    24
  6HR AGO          130   124   121   120   121   124   106    55    28    18    15   DIS   DIS
      NOW          130   121   115   112   111   114    96    45    18   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
  IN  6HR          130   127   118   112   109   108    90    39   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
  IN 12HR          130   127   129   120   114   110    92    41   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS