* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOSE AL122017 09/08/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 130 130 124 117 111 102 91 84 75 70 69 70 77
V (KT) LAND 130 130 124 117 111 102 91 84 75 70 69 70 77
V (KT) LGEM 130 131 126 118 111 101 95 92 86 79 74 71 69
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 12 20 20 20 13 14 23 28 22 21 23 16 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 3 5 2 7 2 10 5 5 8 5
SHEAR DIR 258 264 255 259 266 337 13 34 41 14 8 29 46
SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7
POT. INT. (KT) 162 159 159 157 155 156 156 155 156 158 159 162 162
ADJ. POT. INT. 161 155 153 150 149 149 147 142 137 135 135 138 136
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -50.3 -50.4 -50.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 9
700-500 MB RH 57 53 56 56 54 53 54 55 58 61 63 61 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 19 19 20 18 17 18 17 19 20 21 24
850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 -4 -1 1 -20 -55 -65 -70 -73 -67 -52 -58
200 MB DIV 71 51 44 48 39 -6 -8 -36 -26 -29 41 4 18
700-850 TADV 5 0 5 12 9 8 13 9 15 21 18 18 7
LAND (KM) 711 697 607 501 400 244 322 460 590 718 786 884 1012
LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.7 18.3 19.7 21.4 23.3 24.9 26.1 26.6 27.4 28.5
LONG(DEG W) 57.8 59.0 60.1 61.0 61.9 63.9 66.0 67.7 68.7 68.9 68.2 67.7 67.3
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 11 13 12 11 8 5 4 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 63 66 53 49 55 59 66 54 54 49 44 35 33
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 0. -1. -7. -16. -28. -38. -47. -53. -57. -63.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -14. -17. -17. -18. -16. -12. -6. -1. 5. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2.
PERSISTENCE 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -2. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -7. -9. -8. -7. -6. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. -6. -13. -19. -28. -39. -46. -55. -60. -61. -60. -53.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 16.4 57.8
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/08/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.49 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 57.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.37 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.63 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 130.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.38 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 838.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.12 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 29.4% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 10.7% 8.4% 5.8% 1.9% 0.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Bayesian: 8.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 16.3% 9.4% 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/08/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/08/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 130 124 117 111 102 91 84 75 70 69 70 77
18HR AGO 130 129 123 116 110 101 90 83 74 69 68 69 76
12HR AGO 130 127 126 119 113 104 93 86 77 72 71 72 79
6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 114 105 94 87 78 73 72 73 80
NOW 130 121 115 112 111 102 91 84 75 70 69 70 77
IN 6HR 130 130 121 115 112 107 96 89 80 75 74 75 82
IN 12HR 130 130 124 115 109 105 94 87 78 73 72 73 80