* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KATIA AL132017 09/08/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 90 94 95 95 95 92 90 87 85 82 80 78 79
V (KT) LAND 90 94 74 56 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 90 93 75 56 43 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 4 6 4 7 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 301 307 349 37 61 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 168 166 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 155 158 156 154 151 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 8 7 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 69 72 71 73 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 8 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -6 -3 -2 10 17 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 34 42 39 30 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 1 2 3 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 96 33 -29 -101 -174 -254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 21.1 20.7 20.3 19.9 19.5 19.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 96.2 96.7 97.1 97.6 98.2 99.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 44 29 46 42 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7.
PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. -19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 5. 5. 2. -0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -11.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 21.1 96.2
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 KATIA 09/08/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.88 3.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 1.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.36 1.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 3.8
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.33 1.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 130.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 26.7% 20.1% 13.6% 11.5% 14.4% 14.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 12.5% 30.6% 23.1% 14.7% 14.5% 18.2% 8.1% 3.1%
Bayesian: 15.5% 48.0% 33.9% 32.9% 999.0% 6.4% 2.9% 0.1%
Consensus: 14.5% 35.1% 25.7% 20.4% 999.0% 13.0% 8.6% 1.1%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 KATIA 09/08/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 KATIA 09/08/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 94 74 56 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27
18HR AGO 90 89 69 51 38 27 23 22 22 22 22 22 22
12HR AGO 90 87 86 68 55 44 40 39 39 39 39 39 39
6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 67 56 52 51 51 51 51 51 51
NOW 90 81 75 72 71 60 56 55 55 55 55 55 55
IN 6HR 90 94 85 79 76 71 67 66 66 66 66 66 66
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT