* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KATIA AL132017 09/09/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 69 71 73 76 77 77 79 81 82 84 85
V (KT) LAND 70 55 44 37 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 70 55 44 36 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 296 314 23 53 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 168 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 156 156 154 153 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 71 71 73 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -17 -11 2 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 36 30 33 21 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 4 0 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 16 -37 -92 -148 -203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 20.8 20.6 20.3 19.8 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 96.9 97.3 97.8 98.1 98.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 21 48 42 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1
T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7.
PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.8 96.9
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 KATIA 09/09/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 3.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.88 2.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.19 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.34 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.4
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 1.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.50 1.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.26 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 103.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 15.8% 12.3% 9.0% 8.4% 13.5% 0.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 8.5% 5.5% 3.2% 2.2% 7.3% 5.7% 999.0%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 999.0% 0.1% 0.1% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 8.4% 6.2% 4.1% 999.0% 7.0% 1.9% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 KATIA 09/09/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 KATIA 09/09/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 55 44 37 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
18HR AGO 70 69 58 51 46 42 41 41 41 41 41 41 41
12HR AGO 70 67 66 59 54 50 49 49 49 49 49 49 49
6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 55 51 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT