* ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  IRMA        AL112017  09/09/17  06 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND   140   140   139   139   135   132   124   113    85    64    49    40    36
V (KT) LAND      140   140   139   139   135   132    87    57    37    30    28    27    27
V (KT) LGEM      140   139   137   135   133   130    88    59    37    30    28    27    27
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         7     6     7     9    15    19    26    34    40    39    27    24    31
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     1     1     0     3     3     5     3     2    -1    -1     2     4
SHEAR DIR        302   324   290   247   245   239   228   207   217   208   210   221   243
SST (C)         30.1  30.1  30.1  29.9  29.9  30.1  30.0  29.4  28.0  26.7  25.7  25.4  25.8
POT. INT. (KT)   171   171   170   166   167   171   171   160   138   120   109   104   109
ADJ. POT. INT.   159   156   154   148   148   155   154   142   119   101    90    84    89
200 MB T (C)   -50.1 -50.1 -49.7 -49.9 -50.0 -49.6 -49.3 -48.6 -48.4 -48.5 -49.1 -50.2 -51.1
200 MB VXT (C)   1.2   1.3   1.1   1.2   1.2   1.3   1.4   1.5   1.3   1.9   1.9   2.1   1.1
TH_E DEV (C)      14    13    13    12    11     8     3     2     0     1     0     1     0
700-500 MB RH     60    60    61    60    61    62    60    58    50    43    43    41    42
MODEL VTX (KT)    41    41    40    44    44    49    50    48    35    25    18    13    12
850 MB ENV VOR    85    86    97   120   130   145   133   163   165   157   105    75    32
200 MB DIV        27    41    63    68    81    98    87   113    66    30     4    19    -1
700-850 TADV       5     6    10    11    16    29    54    51    48     4     2     2     1
LAND (KM)         10    30     2    38    73    53   -16   -63  -297  -444  -511  -533  -526
LAT (DEG N)     22.3  22.6  22.9  23.4  23.8  25.4  27.7  30.3  32.8  34.5  35.3  35.5  35.4
LONG(DEG W)     78.3  79.2  80.1  80.6  81.2  81.8  82.3  83.3  84.7  86.3  87.8  88.1  87.3
STM SPEED (KT)    10     9     8     7     7    10    13    14    12     9     5     1     3
HEAT CONTENT     113    32    11    50    63    46    50    36     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11      CX,CY: -10/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND: 135            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  661  (MEAN=618)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  12.0 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            0.0

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -1.  -2.  -5. -11. -21. -34. -47. -60. -70. -78. -85.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG    -1.  -2.  -3.  -6.  -9. -13. -12. -13. -10.  -4.   1.   8.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -0.  -0.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -5.  -6.  -8.  -9. -11. -13.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.
  700-500 MB RH         -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -0.  -0.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.  -0.   2.   2.   7.   9.   6. -11. -24. -35. -41. -42.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   7.   8.   8.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE     -0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC       -0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.   3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES   -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   1.   0.   1.   2.   3.   5.   5.   6.   6.   5.   5.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           0.  -1.  -1.  -5.  -8. -16. -27. -54. -76. -91.-100.-104.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):  140. LAT, LON:   22.3    78.3

      ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA       09/09/17  06 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     5.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.66         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     8.8      30.1  to    2.9       0.78         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    53.8       0.0  to  156.2       0.34         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.0       2.4  to   -3.0       0.44         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    12.0      36.6  to    2.8       0.73         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :   140.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.00           0.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :    13.0      28.4  to  139.6       0.00           0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    56.0     -29.7  to  181.5       0.41         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   695.6     961.4  to  -67.1       0.26         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0     100.0  to    0.0       1.00         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     5.3%    6.1%    4.4%    2.3%    1.5%    1.6%    0.3%    0.0%
    Bayesian:     3.0%    1.3%    0.5%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     2.8%    2.5%    1.6%    0.8%    0.5%    0.5%    0.1%    0.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA       09/09/17  06 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA       09/09/2017  06 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)   ***    ***(***)     ***(***)     ***(***)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)     ER     ERR          ERR          ERR         <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140   140   139   139   135   132    87    57    37    30    28    27    27
 18HR AGO          140   139   138   138   134   131    86    56    36    29    27    26    26
 12HR AGO          140   137   136   136   132   129    84    54    34    27    25    24    24
  6HR AGO          140   134   131   130   126   123    78    48    28    21    19    18    18
      NOW          140   131   125   122   121   118    73    43    23    16   DIS   DIS   DIS
  IN  6HR          140   140   131   125   122   118    73    43    23    16   DIS   DIS   DIS
  IN 12HR          140   140   139   130   124   120    75    45    25    18    16    15    15