* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOSE AL122017 09/10/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 120 118 116 112 107 95 89 81 80 75 82 85 88
V (KT) LAND 120 118 116 112 107 95 89 81 80 75 82 85 88
V (KT) LGEM 120 117 113 109 104 97 90 85 81 76 75 76 76
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 11 16 23 26 21 21 21 17 17 15 19 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 4 -3 7 3 4 6 7 5 0 -4
SHEAR DIR 276 318 333 353 8 25 6 14 356 343 336 328 315
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3
POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 156 156 156 157 157 157 155 153 154
ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 147 147 144 139 135 132 132 132 132 130 132
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -50.8 -50.9 -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -50.7 -50.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 11 12 13
700-500 MB RH 56 53 54 53 55 55 61 61 62 65 64 60 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 23 23 22 20 22 23 26 25 31 33 34
850 MB ENV VOR -14 -31 -39 -58 -61 -73 -59 -52 -39 -32 -21 -28 -21
200 MB DIV -4 9 0 -11 -32 -38 -31 -18 -26 -5 -13 34 38
700-850 TADV 4 8 6 10 7 9 11 8 4 5 2 0 -2
LAND (KM) 318 275 286 361 431 520 615 691 732 734 696 638 575
LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.2 20.9 21.8 22.6 24.2 25.2 25.9 26.2 26.1 25.6 25.0 24.5
LONG(DEG W) 62.9 64.0 65.0 66.0 67.0 68.5 69.2 69.3 68.7 68.1 67.6 67.5 67.8
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 12 8 5 3 3 3 3 2 3
HEAT CONTENT 57 51 49 71 61 58 50 48 52 53 52 53 56
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -1. -7. -16. -26. -35. -42. -48. -51. -56.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -17. -14. -9. -5. 1. 5. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -2. -2. 1. -0. 6. 8. 9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -13. -25. -31. -39. -40. -45. -38. -35. -32.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 19.4 62.9
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/10/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.50 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 57.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.37 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.65 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 120.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.02 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.10 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 826.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.13 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.6% 2.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.9% 4.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/10/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/10/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 118 116 112 107 95 89 81 80 75 82 85 88
18HR AGO 120 119 117 113 108 96 90 82 81 76 83 86 89
12HR AGO 120 117 116 112 107 95 89 81 80 75 82 85 88
6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 105 93 87 79 78 73 80 83 86
NOW 120 111 105 102 101 89 83 75 74 69 76 79 82
IN 6HR 120 118 109 103 100 93 87 79 78 73 80 83 86
IN 12HR 120 118 116 107 101 97 91 83 82 77 84 87 90