* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOSE AL122017 09/10/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 115 110 105 99 93 85 78 73 74 72 76 82 88
V (KT) LAND 115 110 105 99 93 85 78 73 74 72 76 82 88
V (KT) LGEM 115 111 106 100 96 89 85 81 78 76 74 76 80
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 15 22 26 27 25 19 25 18 18 21 19 12 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 -1 -1 4 5 3 3 5 5 3 0 -1
SHEAR DIR 356 5 6 25 31 7 359 349 333 344 350 348 308
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 157 158 158 159 160 158 155 155 157 161
ADJ. POT. INT. 148 148 145 144 140 135 135 136 134 132 134 141 149
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -50.5 -50.9 -50.5 -50.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 10 11 12 12 12
700-500 MB RH 52 52 52 54 55 60 60 59 60 60 57 59 61
MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 21 20 20 20 21 21 25 25 28 31 33
850 MB ENV VOR -46 -60 -58 -73 -80 -64 -71 -52 -42 -28 -27 -12 -16
200 MB DIV -14 -26 -31 -42 -34 -22 -26 -19 -11 -9 10 32 37
700-850 TADV 7 15 13 9 7 10 11 2 4 1 2 0 -5
LAND (KM) 308 416 487 531 599 713 800 809 758 698 635 556 511
LAT (DEG N) 21.2 22.3 23.3 24.2 25.0 26.1 26.8 26.7 25.9 25.2 24.8 24.6 24.4
LONG(DEG W) 65.3 66.2 67.2 68.0 68.8 69.3 68.6 67.7 66.8 66.6 67.1 68.8 71.5
STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 11 8 4 4 5 4 3 5 10 13
HEAT CONTENT 55 66 46 54 52 47 48 53 48 44 48 53 49
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -1. -6. -14. -23. -31. -38. -43. -46. -50.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -9. -15. -19. -21. -21. -16. -12. -7. -3. 2. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. -0. 3. 5. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -22. -30. -36. -42. -41. -43. -39. -33. -27.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 21.2 65.3
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/10/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.27 0.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 54.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.35 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.52 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 0.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.10 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.01 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 867.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.09 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 11.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.6 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 11.2% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.5% 3.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/10/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/10/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 110 105 99 93 85 78 73 74 72 76 82 88
18HR AGO 115 114 109 103 97 89 82 77 78 76 80 86 92
12HR AGO 115 112 111 105 99 91 84 79 80 78 82 88 94
6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 99 91 84 79 80 78 82 88 94
NOW 115 106 100 97 96 88 81 76 77 75 79 85 91
IN 6HR 115 110 101 95 92 88 81 76 77 75 79 85 91
IN 12HR 115 110 105 96 90 86 79 74 75 73 77 83 89