* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IRMA AL112017 09/11/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 90 83 80 77 69 52 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 90 68 55 45 37 30 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 90 67 54 44 36 30 28 27 27 28 29 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 32 33 31 36 41 34 27 11 19 25 28 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 8 2 0 -3 2 5 2 -2 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 232 229 222 206 210 206 191 207 248 256 256 N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.4 28.6 26.9 25.5 24.7 24.3 23.9 23.2 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 166 160 147 124 108 101 99 96 92 N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 155 155 149 144 129 106 91 85 84 82 78 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.0 -50.2 -49.4 -49.0 -48.8 -49.2 -49.9 -50.3 -51.9 -53.2 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.0 1.4 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.8 1.3 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 66 63 63 59 53 48 45 45 48 47 43 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 45 45 44 43 36 27 20 17 12 10 5 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 134 122 140 150 137 156 99 59 32 6 -33 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 75 77 103 135 88 14 25 19 -8 -8 -29 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 57 74 85 86 65 5 0 8 14 5 1 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) -40 -22 -21 -76 -211 -380 -483 -597 -711 -863 -881 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 26.8 28.1 29.3 30.7 32.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.1 38.4 39.7 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 81.7 82.3 82.8 83.6 84.5 86.9 88.8 89.1 88.0 86.7 85.6 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 11 7 6 8 8 7 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 50 48 44 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11
T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 4. -0. -8. -18. -25. -32. -37. -40. -42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -14. -19. -25. -25. -21. -18. -16. -14. -13. -11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 2. 4. 4.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -12.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -7. -19. -31. -37. -46. -49. -56. -57. -56.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -7. -10. -13. -21. -38. -56. -66. -77. -84. -94. -95. -95.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 26.8 81.7
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/11/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.60 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.25 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.59 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 273.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.67 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/11/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/11/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 68 55 45 37 30 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 90 89 76 66 58 51 49 48 21 21 21 21 21
12HR AGO 90 87 86 76 68 61 59 58 31 31 31 31 31
6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 72 65 63 62 35 35 35 35 35
NOW 90 81 75 72 71 64 62 61 34 34 34 34 34
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT