* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOSE AL122017 09/11/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 100 93 87 85 81 77 73 70 70 69 72 79 83
V (KT) LAND 100 93 87 85 81 77 73 70 70 69 72 79 83
V (KT) LGEM 100 93 88 84 81 78 77 75 73 71 70 71 74
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 26 30 24 17 14 18 20 22 17 20 13 16 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 1 4 5 4 3 4 7 8 3 -2 -4
SHEAR DIR 360 12 19 16 355 347 333 350 356 355 329 317 298
SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6
POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 159 159 159 157 155 154 154 155 159 162
ADJ. POT. INT. 147 144 140 138 135 134 134 132 133 134 135 141 145
200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 -50.6 -50.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9
TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 10 11 11 12 11 11
700-500 MB RH 56 56 57 60 61 62 62 64 65 61 64 63 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 22 22 20 22 23 25 28 29 30 32 35
850 MB ENV VOR -47 -67 -70 -50 -46 -55 -41 -28 -14 -4 6 3 -6
200 MB DIV -41 -35 -9 0 -10 -8 -25 -15 -25 4 0 43 89
700-850 TADV 16 11 7 10 8 7 3 2 0 0 -3 -11 4
LAND (KM) 465 530 616 680 744 785 764 714 620 531 478 522 581
LAT (DEG N) 23.3 24.3 25.2 25.8 26.4 26.7 26.3 25.7 24.9 24.3 24.0 24.5 25.5
LONG(DEG W) 67.6 68.4 69.1 69.3 69.5 68.8 67.8 67.4 67.7 68.5 69.6 71.0 72.7
STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 9 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 8 10
HEAT CONTENT 46 53 45 42 41 45 54 52 54 53 51 44 51
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10
T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -8. -15. -20. -25. -29. -31. -35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -10. -13. -14. -15. -14. -12. -9. -6. -2. 1. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. 0. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -15. -19. -23. -27. -30. -30. -31. -28. -21. -17.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 23.3 67.6
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/11/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.29 0.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.29 0.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.36 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.11 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.05 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 633.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.32 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.4 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 9.0% 4.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.2% 3.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/11/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/11/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 93 87 85 81 77 73 70 70 69 72 79 83
18HR AGO 100 99 93 91 87 83 79 76 76 75 78 85 89
12HR AGO 100 97 96 94 90 86 82 79 79 78 81 88 92
6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 86 82 78 75 75 74 77 84 88
NOW 100 91 85 82 81 77 73 70 70 69 72 79 83
IN 6HR 100 93 84 78 75 72 68 65 65 64 67 74 78
IN 12HR 100 93 87 78 72 68 64 61 61 60 63 70 74