* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IRMA AL112017 09/11/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 36 30 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 45 37 33 30 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 45 37 32 30 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 40 43 44 42 28 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 -5 -4 2 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 216 209 211 209 196 223 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.8 27.8 26.8 26.1 25.2 24.1 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 150 136 123 115 106 97 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 133 119 106 99 91 82 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -49.0 -48.8 -48.7 -49.0 -49.4 -49.9 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 58 52 50 47 44 42 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 39 34 30 25 20 17 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 129 141 148 151 108 68 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 88 56 22 19 26 23 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 82 57 45 13 1 2 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) -107 -217 -311 -378 -434 -538 -674 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 30.9 32.1 33.2 33.9 34.6 35.5 36.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 83.5 84.5 85.4 86.5 87.6 88.8 89.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 11 9 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 15 CX,CY: -4/ 14
T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -15. -20. -24. -27. -30.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.
PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -11. -7. -4. -0. 3. 5.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -9. -15. -23. -34. -37. -39. -39. -40. -41. -41.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -22. -29. -37. -49. -53. -54. -54. -55. -55. -57.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 30.9 83.5
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/11/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.03 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.53 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.34 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 193.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 48.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.51 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/11/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/11/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 37 33 30 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 45 44 40 37 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT