* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOSE AL122017 09/12/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 68 67 67 66 65 68 70 74 78 80 82
V (KT) LAND 75 71 68 67 67 66 65 68 70 74 78 80 82
V (KT) LGEM 75 70 67 66 66 67 67 67 67 69 71 73 74
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 20 22 22 17 17 18 16 15 6 11 14 17 24
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 1 0 9 8 6 4 2 -2 2 3
SHEAR DIR 18 7 1 5 348 344 8 10 341 302 270 268 239
SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.6
POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 160 160 160 158 158 161 164 165 165 162 162
ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 136 138 137 136 137 144 146 144 143 142 142
200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.5 -50.9 -50.4 -50.6 -51.0 -50.7 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.2 -50.3 -49.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 9 11 11 12 11 12 10 9
700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 59 60 55 53 52 56 56 58 58 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 23 22 24 26 29 29 31 32 34 37
850 MB ENV VOR -36 -49 -58 -40 -32 -21 -6 18 19 7 -6 -1 23
200 MB DIV -17 -20 -29 3 -33 -47 -35 15 36 33 42 73 67
700-850 TADV 18 16 12 7 2 5 1 -1 0 -2 2 7 8
LAND (KM) 798 825 854 834 818 767 671 565 552 630 716 636 448
LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.0 26.7 25.9 24.8 24.4 24.7 25.5 26.6 27.7 28.6
LONG(DEG W) 69.7 69.2 68.6 68.0 67.4 66.6 66.4 67.8 70.0 71.6 72.1 73.7 75.9
STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 5 5 8 9 7 7 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 41 42 42 48 51 45 39 51 43 38 41 45 80
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9
T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. 0. 2. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 12.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -7. -5. -1. 3. 5. 7.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 26.9 69.7
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/12/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.39 0.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.29 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.33 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.31 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.05 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 441.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.51 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 7.9% 7.0% 6.5% 6.1% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.0% 1.9% 1.4% 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.3% 3.3% 2.8% 2.5% 2.4% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/12/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/12/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 71 68 67 67 66 65 68 70 74 78 80 82
18HR AGO 75 74 71 70 70 69 68 71 73 77 81 83 85
12HR AGO 75 72 71 70 70 69 68 71 73 77 81 83 85
6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 64 63 66 68 72 76 78 80
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT