* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FIFTEEN EP152017 09/13/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 36 41 44 48 49 52 53 52
V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 36 41 44 48 49 52 53 52
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 35 37 39 41 43 44
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 14 16 16 12 11 10 10 10 8 10 7 9 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -4 -2 -4 -6 -3 -4 0 -4 -2 0 2
SHEAR DIR 88 80 92 98 98 87 77 53 40 16 55 54 65
SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7
POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 146 146 146 145 142 141 139 139 138 137 135
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 68 67 59 60 55 55 53 54 51 51
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 11 12 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 14
850 MB ENV VOR 75 60 47 36 26 -3 -2 -10 -8 -24 -10 -26 -6
200 MB DIV 54 51 45 35 34 -12 18 9 13 -1 30 23 29
700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 1298 1352 1403 1444 1487 1575 1653 1701 1741 1774 1809 1835 1843
LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.2
LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.8 120.5 121.3 122.0 123.4 124.4 125.0 125.4 125.8 126.3 126.6 126.7
STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 2 2 2 1 0
HEAT CONTENT 19 17 17 16 16 15 15 13 12 11 10 10 10
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 25. 27. 27. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 14. 18. 19. 22. 23. 22.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 119.0
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/13/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 2.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.28 1.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 0.6
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 1.6
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.11 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 122.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.75 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 12.3% 8.6% 6.5% 0.0% 10.8% 11.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% 0.6% 1.1%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.8% 4.5% 3.0% 2.2% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.4%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/13/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##