* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MAX EP162017 09/13/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 40 41 46 51 53 56 57 59 59 59
V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 40 41 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 43 44 34 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 11 14 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 6 359 340 353 7 32 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 162 162 162 163 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -51.7 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 7 6 9 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 64 62 59 61 61 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 3 3 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -2 4 9 5 1 -16 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 91 89 76 76 45 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 157 110 63 32 0 -38 -76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 101.6 101.1 100.6 100.0 99.4 98.5 97.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 26 25 25 16 12 52 53 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 11. 16. 18. 21. 22. 24. 24. 24.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.0 101.6
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162017 MAX 09/13/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 4.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 3.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 1.1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 2.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 1.6
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.74 -1.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.33 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 144.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.72 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 22.1% 17.6% 15.4% 0.0% 18.7% 16.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.1% 8.0% 5.9% 4.9% 2.4% 6.9% 9.1% 12.6%
Bayesian: 1.6% 7.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 999.0%
Consensus: 6.7% 12.4% 8.2% 6.8% 0.8% 8.7% 8.6% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162017 MAX 09/13/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##