* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* NORMA EP172017 09/14/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 48 54 67 77 83 78 73 64 51 51
V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 48 54 67 77 83 78 73 62 44 32
V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 46 50 60 69 75 75 70 60 42 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 10 12 10 7 6 3 4 13 15 15 11 20 24
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 -3 -6 -4 4 10 0
SHEAR DIR 51 68 102 99 91 95 120 165 158 163 194 207 257
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.3 27.7 27.5 28.7 30.5 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 150 150 154 154 146 139 137 152 173 162
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -50.7 -50.8 -49.9 -50.3 -50.0 -50.0 -49.7 -50.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 10 8 11 7 9 6 10 9
700-500 MB RH 58 55 56 56 57 59 57 50 44 44 44 47 52
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 20 22 25 27 29 25 23 18 7 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 24 7 11 10 7 24 36 61 38 28 39 22 5
200 MB DIV 85 70 75 83 64 84 37 44 -13 -5 19 45 44
700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -3 -2 -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 -3 -6 32
LAND (KM) 543 490 441 437 443 363 285 224 100 20 37 -111 -503
LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.7 18.2 18.4 18.3 18.6 19.6 21.1 22.0 23.0 24.4 26.6 28.3
LONG(DEG W) 109.5 109.4 109.2 109.3 109.3 108.6 108.3 109.0 110.0 110.3 109.9 108.1 104.5
STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 1 1 5 7 8 5 6 11 16 19
HEAT CONTENT 23 22 23 21 22 30 30 15 9 8 25 44 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 32.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 2. 1. -0. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 18. 13. 10. 3. -9. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 19. 32. 42. 48. 43. 38. 29. 16. 16.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.0 109.5
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/14/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 3.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 4.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.21 1.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 2.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 -1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 210.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.64 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 23.3% 18.1% 15.3% 12.9% 22.9% 21.0% 12.1%
Logistic: 2.4% 11.3% 7.8% 4.5% 2.0% 25.6% 36.2% 13.1%
Bayesian: 1.5% 19.1% 3.6% 0.9% 0.1% 4.6% 5.9% 4.8%
Consensus: 5.0% 17.9% 9.8% 6.9% 5.0% 17.7% 21.1% 10.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/14/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##