* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FIFTEEN EP152017 09/14/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 33 38 44 48 55 53 54 49 45
V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 33 38 44 48 55 53 54 49 45
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 35 37 37 36 33 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 6 4 3 5 6 10 11 14 11 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -5 -5 -3 -4 -2 1 1 3 7 1
SHEAR DIR 81 64 59 50 45 75 21 78 85 89 72 78 80
SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3
POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 141 140 140 139 138 137 136 136 135 134 133
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 3
700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 60 58 59 58 57 52 48 45 44 41
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 15 16 15 18 16 17 14 13
850 MB ENV VOR 2 -8 -14 -16 -17 -9 -5 9 2 12 22 30 27
200 MB DIV 25 6 -2 -3 -16 -12 -13 18 12 42 -3 -4 -20
700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 -2 0 2
LAND (KM) 1544 1571 1600 1628 1657 1721 1770 1772 1734 1712 1723 1689 1633
LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.5 15.4 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.6 17.1
LONG(DEG W) 123.3 123.8 124.2 124.6 124.9 125.5 126.0 126.1 125.9 125.8 126.1 126.1 125.9
STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 3 2
HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 12 12 12 10 10 12 13 13 13 9
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 9.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 3. 4. 0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 25. 23. 24. 19. 15.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 123.3
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/14/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 1.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 2.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.11 0.3
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.20 0.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.29 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 138.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.73 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.5 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 12.5% 5.9% 3.6% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% 9.1%
Logistic: 0.4% 4.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.4%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.9% 5.5% 2.6% 1.3% 0.0% 4.1% 0.2% 3.2%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/14/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##