* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MAX EP162017 09/14/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 80 81 81 79 76 73 72 71 70 69 69
V (KT) LAND 75 58 47 39 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 75 61 49 39 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 14 18 17 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 335 333 356 14 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 162 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 58 61 61 60 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 3 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -12 -15 -15 -6 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 53 70 47 36 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 10 -26 -63 -110 -153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.1 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 99.4 98.9 98.4 97.9 97.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 19 50 53 56 54 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -4. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.5 99.4
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162017 MAX 09/14/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.20 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 46.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.43 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.73 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 389.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.42 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162017 MAX 09/14/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##