* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MAX EP162017 09/15/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 58 58 58 60 62 64 67 69 70 73 75
V (KT) LAND 60 47 38 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 60 47 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 14 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 349 4 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -23 -21 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 47 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) -39 -90 -133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.9 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 98.7 98.0 97.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 52 55 54 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 13. 15.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.7 98.7
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162017 MAX 09/15/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.30 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 19.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.68 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 343.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.48 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162017 MAX 09/15/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##