* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FIFTEEN EP152017 09/15/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 35 40 43 48 49 49 48 43 40
V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 35 40 43 48 49 49 48 43 40
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 32 33 34 33 32 30 28 26
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 8 7 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 9 14 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -6 -5 -5 -5 0 2 3 2 2 2 5
SHEAR DIR 50 49 46 42 27 8 113 132 147 53 83 88 99
SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 139 137 136 136 135 134 132 129 128 128
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3
700-500 MB RH 59 59 57 58 58 55 55 52 49 45 45 43 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 15 14 16 15 15 15 13 12
850 MB ENV VOR -3 -10 -14 -15 -5 -5 12 3 5 19 30 30 31
200 MB DIV 0 -9 -19 -31 -29 -8 21 29 60 32 22 33 44
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 1
LAND (KM) 1594 1623 1653 1681 1709 1719 1723 1699 1651 1609 1589 1604 1657
LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.3 17.8 17.9 17.6
LONG(DEG W) 124.3 124.7 125.1 125.3 125.6 125.8 126.0 126.0 125.8 125.8 126.1 126.4 126.8
STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 2 1 2 2 3 3 2 2 3
HEAT CONTENT 9 10 11 12 12 11 12 12 10 5 2 2 5
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 25. 25. 24.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 13. 18. 19. 19. 18. 13. 10.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.9 124.3
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/15/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 2.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.72 3.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.10 0.4
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.08 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.1
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 -1.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.17 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 148.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.72 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.8% 11.0% 8.6% 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.4% 2.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.6% 5.5% 4.1% 2.9% 0.0% 4.3% 0.2% 0.1%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/15/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##