* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FOURTEEN AL142017 09/15/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 35 40 44 47 44 40 37 36 36
V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 35 40 44 47 44 40 37 36 36
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 34 35 36 35 32 28 24 21
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 11 5 11 16 18 16 14 13 20 31 30 27 38
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 12 5 -1 -4 0 1 8 6 5 5 11 4
SHEAR DIR 360 325 335 343 348 331 317 273 269 270 275 264 260
SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8
POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 141 141 141 139 139 142 144 142 140 137 135
ADJ. POT. INT. 147 142 138 136 135 132 134 140 143 139 136 133 130
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.4 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9
700-500 MB RH 58 62 62 62 60 59 55 58 61 63 66 67 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 11 10 8 7 7
850 MB ENV VOR -49 -43 -31 -31 -29 -21 -23 -22 -26 -29 -31 -28 -5
200 MB DIV 32 26 66 45 2 12 22 4 -2 0 23 52 84
700-850 TADV -6 -7 -5 -4 -4 -3 0 -2 -3 -2 1 7 4
LAND (KM) 1180 1269 1359 1425 1492 1616 1698 1857 1875 1725 1608 1534 1471
LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.3 13.0 13.7 14.2 15.0 15.9
LONG(DEG W) 27.8 28.7 29.6 30.3 30.9 32.1 32.9 34.5 36.7 38.9 40.8 42.8 44.9
STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 6 6 5 6 10 11 10 10 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 19 26 27 25 20 13 9 7 12 26 21 26 36
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -2. -4. -6. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -6. -8. -11. -13. -13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 14. 17. 14. 10. 7. 6. 6.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 27.8
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/15/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.66 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.15 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.30 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.73 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.30 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 169.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 31.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.68 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/15/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 33 35 40 44 47 44 40 37 36 36
18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 39 43 46 43 39 36 35 35
12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 39 42 39 35 32 31 31
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 31 34 31 27 24 23 23
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT