* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FIFTEEN EP152017 09/16/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 36 36 36 35 31 26 22 18 16
V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 36 36 36 35 31 26 22 18 16
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 34 31 27 23 20 17 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 3 3 3 4 8 5 8 18 22 20 19 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 0 4 2 2 5 3 5
SHEAR DIR 39 148 172 212 211 207 227 107 104 123 126 146 163
SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.7 27.3
POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 134 133 132 130 125 122 122 123 125 130 136
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 4
700-500 MB RH 53 52 53 52 51 49 45 49 49 46 43 43 43
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 7 6 6 6 5
850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 6 -3 -12 -14 -10 -5 -11 -13 -8 -1 3
200 MB DIV -20 -11 -3 17 20 23 12 50 14 20 -16 -14 14
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 1805 1803 1801 1784 1767 1719 1664 1665 1712 1790 1910 2061 2243
LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.4 16.6 17.2 17.9 18.2 18.1 17.9 17.6 17.1 16.3
LONG(DEG W) 126.8 127.0 127.1 127.2 127.2 127.2 127.2 127.5 128.0 128.8 130.0 131.4 132.9
STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 3 5 7 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 5 5 6 6 5 4 1 6 6 0 1 4 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 23. 22.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 3. 0. -1. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 1. -4. -8. -12. -14.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 126.8
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/16/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 2.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 6.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.05 0.3
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.5
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 -1.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 183.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.68 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 19.1% 15.7% 12.8% 0.0% 14.7% 12.5% 0.0%
Logistic: 5.8% 14.2% 9.5% 2.9% 0.9% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 5.1% 11.1% 8.4% 5.2% 0.3% 5.5% 4.3% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/16/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##