* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MARIA AL152017 09/17/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 46 50 54 60 66 81 87 94 98 97 99
V (KT) LAND 40 42 46 50 54 60 66 81 87 94 98 87 89
V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 47 49 55 62 72 86 98 103 94 95
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 3 6 5 4 3 11 6 4 2 9 3 9 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 6 6 1 0 3 3 0 1 2 3
SHEAR DIR 290 257 258 313 339 359 25 38 1 334 12 300 269
SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 162 158 157 153 155 156 159 161 159 157 156 156 158
ADJ. POT. INT. 168 160 158 151 151 150 152 154 151 148 146 146 148
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 12
700-500 MB RH 60 58 60 60 61 63 62 59 60 58 60 61 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 21 22 21 21 27 26 29 30 28 29
850 MB ENV VOR 23 14 8 12 14 12 12 23 34 29 44 42 46
200 MB DIV 69 87 69 77 73 78 53 59 47 32 12 40 54
700-850 TADV 2 6 7 1 -3 -3 -5 0 0 0 0 3 4
LAND (KM) 740 740 654 583 528 474 504 483 316 148 0 53 44
LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.6 15.3 15.9 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.8 19.7
LONG(DEG W) 53.1 54.3 55.5 56.5 57.4 59.0 60.4 61.9 63.3 64.7 66.1 67.6 69.4
STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 10 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 48 49 49 56 67 61 62 52 66 57 83 55 55
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 15.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 8. 7. 10. 10. 8. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 20. 26. 41. 47. 54. 58. 57. 59.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.3 53.1
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/17/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 7.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.95 4.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 53.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.34 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.37 1.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 3.8
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 1.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.80 2.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.50 0.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 243.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.70 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 38.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.8 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 43.4% 24.3% 9.9% 8.8% 21.2% 27.4% 27.9%
Logistic: 8.9% 36.9% 21.6% 14.7% 13.7% 21.6% 13.5% 15.6%
Bayesian: 1.4% 7.6% 3.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 1.5%
Consensus: 6.0% 29.3% 16.6% 8.5% 7.6% 14.4% 13.9% 15.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/17/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/17/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 46 50 54 60 66 81 87 94 98 87 89
18HR AGO 40 39 43 47 51 57 63 78 84 91 95 84 86
12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 44 50 56 71 77 84 88 77 79
6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 40 46 61 67 74 78 67 69
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT