* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* NORMA EP172017 09/17/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 54 52 53 51 51 47 44 39 32 28 27
V (KT) LAND 55 53 54 52 53 51 51 47 44 39 32 28 27
V (KT) LGEM 55 52 50 49 47 43 40 36 32 28 25 22 20
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 7 8 3 8 11 7 17 14 6 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 5 4 6 5 3 5 0 -1 1 -4
SHEAR DIR 189 227 224 210 191 234 197 265 300 330 345 342 170
SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.6 25.7
POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 139 136 133 127 123 118 115 114 113 114 115
200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.1 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -52.1 -52.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 9 6 7 5 6 5 6 4 6
700-500 MB RH 53 48 49 49 45 43 41 41 39 41 39 37 34
MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 23 20 21 19 18 15 13 11 9 7 5
850 MB ENV VOR 13 24 17 24 11 8 6 14 -3 7 6 24 21
200 MB DIV 31 4 0 8 -11 -18 -15 -17 -6 -18 -29 -40 -3
700-850 TADV 0 3 2 1 1 -1 0 0 -3 -2 -4 -2 -7
LAND (KM) 322 267 215 174 144 148 145 139 136 131 113 98 92
LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.5 21.9 22.6 23.3 23.6 23.7 23.8 24.0 24.1 24.1
LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.3 110.4 110.7 110.9 111.5 112.2 112.7 112.9 113.0 113.0 112.9 112.8
STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 1 0 1 0 1
HEAT CONTENT 13 12 10 8 7 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -16.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -3. -2. -4. -4. -8. -11. -16. -23. -27. -28.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.0 110.1
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/17/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 1.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 4.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.09 0.5
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.3
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 -1.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 412.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.40 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.3 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.5 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 20.6% 15.5% 11.9% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.2% 7.3% 5.4% 4.1% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/17/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##