* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOSE AL122017 09/17/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 71 71 70 72 69 69 66 57 46 43 40
V (KT) LAND 70 70 71 71 70 72 69 69 66 57 46 43 40
V (KT) LGEM 70 70 71 70 70 67 63 60 56 50 46 45 46
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 26 23 28 34 36 34 28 20 22 20 19 11 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 11 6 4 1 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 -2 -2
SHEAR DIR 276 251 230 230 234 215 229 207 219 218 228 222 292
SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.8 26.7 24.0 21.4 21.1 22.3 24.0
POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 146 140 134 132 133 120 97 83 82 86 96
ADJ. POT. INT. 129 126 122 117 112 109 110 100 83 73 72 74 80
200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -52.2 -53.9 -54.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.9
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 3 4 1 0 0
700-500 MB RH 54 58 60 59 60 58 54 52 53 49 36 31 33
MODEL VTX (KT) 29 32 33 33 35 40 38 40 39 35 30 29 28
850 MB ENV VOR 45 52 64 71 69 78 68 77 89 66 45 29 23
200 MB DIV 48 51 82 64 70 68 8 83 62 46 29 12 6
700-850 TADV 21 14 19 22 29 15 15 1 0 -6 -8 -9 -6
LAND (KM) 733 682 636 584 532 461 434 412 312 252 318 309 383
LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.3 30.9 31.7 32.4 33.8 35.4 37.0 38.7 40.0 40.7 40.8 40.5
LONG(DEG W) 71.7 71.6 71.5 71.5 71.4 71.3 71.1 70.7 69.9 68.4 66.3 64.6 63.2
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 7 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 43 35 29 24 20 10 10 28 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -17. -21. -24. -27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 8. 10. 9. 3. -5. -7. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. -1. -1. -4. -13. -24. -27. -30.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 29.6 71.7
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/17/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.02 0.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.19 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.63 1.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 2.4
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 1.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.21 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.44 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 428.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.52 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 13.9% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.6% 2.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.7% 5.3% 4.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/17/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/17/2017 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 70 71 71 70 72 69 69 66 57 46 43 40
18HR AGO 70 69 70 70 69 71 68 68 65 56 45 42 39
12HR AGO 70 67 66 66 65 67 64 64 61 52 41 38 35
6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 61 58 58 55 46 35 32 29
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT