* ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  LEE         AL142017  09/17/17  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    35    34    32    30    28    24    21    17   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LAND       35    34    32    30    28    24    21    17   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LGEM       35    34    33    32    30    26    23    20    16   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        17    20    22    26    31    32    28    33    33    14    18    32    49
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     4     3     4     2    -1     1    12     8     4     0     4     1    -2
SHEAR DIR        299   293   286   283   288   306   301   297   282   309   347     1   354
SST (C)         28.5  28.5  28.6  28.5  28.4  28.1  27.9  27.7  27.4  27.4  27.6  27.9  28.3
POT. INT. (KT)   143   142   144   143   142   138   135   133   129   129   131   135   141
ADJ. POT. INT.   137   136   139   139   139   132   128   127   122   120   122   126   132
200 MB T (C)   -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -55.0 -54.4 -53.9
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.1  -0.1  -0.1   0.0  -0.1  -0.3  -0.3   0.1   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.3   0.2
TH_E DEV (C)       8     9     9     9     9     9     9    10    10    11    10    11    10
700-500 MB RH     51    50    49    48    50    50    55    57    55    54    54    51    49
MODEL VTX (KT)    12    12    11    10     9     8     7     6     5     4     4     3     2
850 MB ENV VOR   -15   -10   -13   -24   -28   -23   -20   -11    -9    -4     0   -20   -38
200 MB DIV       -43   -50   -59   -46   -17    47    57    53    59     7    -7   -13   -47
700-850 TADV       1    -2    -7    -5    -3    -1     2     4     5     8     8     5     9
LAND (KM)       1906  1849  1793  1736  1684  1610  1565  1545  1559  1560  1508  1396  1262
LAT (DEG N)     12.9  13.0  13.0  13.3  13.6  14.5  15.2  16.3  17.6  18.5  19.0  19.7  20.6
LONG(DEG W)     36.3  36.9  37.6  38.4  39.3  41.1  42.6  44.3  46.2  48.1  49.8  51.8  53.9
STM SPEED (KT)     7     6     7     9    10     9     9    11    11     9     9    10    11
HEAT CONTENT       9    11    14    22    29    19    24    27    23    15    16    23    21

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/  8      CX,CY:  -7/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  35            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  774  (MEAN=618)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  12.9 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  19.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            0.1

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   2.   4.   7.  11.  14.  17.  19.  21.  22.  23.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG    -0.  -0.  -1.  -3.  -6.  -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -17. -20.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -3.
  PERSISTENCE           -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY    -0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -6.  -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -20.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE     -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES   -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -3.  -4.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE          -1.  -3.  -5.  -7. -11. -14. -18. -20. -20. -16. -14. -14.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   35. LAT, LON:   12.9    36.3

      ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE        09/17/17  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.60         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    23.0      30.1  to    2.9       0.26         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    17.0       0.0  to  156.2       0.11         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.4       2.4  to   -3.0       0.37         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    12.9      36.6  to    2.8       0.70         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    35.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.35         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   103.1      28.4  to  139.6       0.67         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   -43.0     -29.7  to  181.5       0.00           0.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   245.0     961.4  to  -67.1       0.70         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:    57.7     100.0  to    0.0       0.42         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   9% is   1.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    9.1%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     1.0%    1.6%    1.0%    0.4%    0.2%    0.3%    0.2%    0.1%
    Bayesian:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     0.3%    0.5%    0.3%    0.1%    0.1%    3.1%    0.1%    0.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE        09/17/17  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE        09/17/2017  12 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  35    34    32    30    28    24    21    17   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
 18HR AGO           35    34    32    30    28    24    21    17   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
 12HR AGO           35    32    31    29    27    23    20    16   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
  6HR AGO           35    29    26    25    23    19    16   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT