* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* OTIS EP152017 09/18/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 81 73 64 49 38 29 24 22 20 19 18
V (KT) LAND 90 87 81 73 64 49 38 29 24 22 20 19 18
V (KT) LGEM 90 87 80 71 63 49 39 32 27 23 20 18 17
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 10 12 7 11 10 11 3 6 4 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 4 5 4 3 8 5 4 -2 -4 -8
SHEAR DIR 255 255 227 193 179 167 134 131 160 222 243 260 235
SST (C) 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.8 26.2 26.7 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.0
POT. INT. (KT) 125 121 118 116 116 117 119 124 130 136 138 141 143
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -54.2 -54.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 6
700-500 MB RH 46 48 47 49 51 49 50 50 50 50 53 53 58
MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 16 14 13 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 5
850 MB ENV VOR 12 0 5 3 6 -2 -3 -9 7 24 36 32 39
200 MB DIV 42 43 31 55 48 39 44 0 -12 -2 37 37 28
700-850 TADV 4 4 2 0 0 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 -2 -2 0
LAND (KM) 1641 1612 1584 1593 1603 1683 1791 1939 2105 2277 2139 2005 1883
LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.2 18.6 17.9 17.2 16.4 15.7 15.0 14.4
LONG(DEG W) 127.3 127.4 127.4 127.6 127.8 128.6 129.4 130.6 132.0 133.5 135.0 136.5 137.9
STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 2 3 4 6 7 8 8 8 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 7 10 19 16
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -8. -14. -20. -25. -28. -30. -31. -32. -31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -17. -26. -41. -52. -61. -66. -68. -69. -71. -72.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.3 127.3
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 OTIS 09/18/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 52.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.16 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 675.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.07 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 16.9% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 5.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 OTIS 09/18/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##