* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOSE AL122017 09/18/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 58 56 55 54 49 45 41 37 33 29 24
V (KT) LAND 65 61 58 56 55 54 49 45 41 37 33 29 24
V (KT) LGEM 65 61 59 57 56 54 51 47 45 45 46 46 46
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 30 32 30 21 18 18 18 19 12 8 7 13 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -7 -2 -1 -5 -1 -6 -1 -1 -1 -3 0
SHEAR DIR 226 217 236 240 199 217 200 246 215 263 249 289 338
SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.2 26.6 25.7 23.2 21.6 21.5 22.7 23.7 24.0 24.7 25.3
POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 126 119 110 92 83 81 86 93 94 99 104
ADJ. POT. INT. 107 107 104 98 91 78 72 70 73 77 78 80 84
200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.4 -50.9 -50.7 -50.8 -51.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.6 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.5 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.9
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 4 2 5 3 2 0 1 1 4
700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 58 57 56 50 44 41 42 44 44 42
MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 38 38 37 38 36 34 32 28 26 23 21
850 MB ENV VOR 70 67 66 60 63 55 83 32 29 36 18 -5 -39
200 MB DIV 64 40 11 33 83 46 45 3 -3 3 -21 -22 -92
700-850 TADV 18 10 17 12 0 0 -3 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0
LAND (KM) 465 441 424 399 365 265 224 255 322 348 336 366 409
LAT (DEG N) 34.4 35.2 36.0 36.8 37.6 39.0 39.9 40.2 39.9 39.4 39.0 38.7 38.5
LONG(DEG W) 71.0 71.1 71.1 71.0 70.9 70.3 69.2 68.1 67.4 67.6 68.6 68.6 68.0
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 2 3 2 2 3
HEAT CONTENT 10 7 28 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -19. -23. -25. -27. -28. -30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13.
PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -4. -6. -10. -16. -20. -24. -27.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -16. -20. -24. -28. -32. -36. -41.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 34.4 71.0
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/18/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.14 0.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.10 0.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.47 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.8
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.07 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.36 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 291.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.65 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 63.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.36 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 6.5% 5.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.8% 2.4% 1.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/18/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/18/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 61 58 56 55 54 49 45 41 37 33 29 24
18HR AGO 65 64 61 59 58 57 52 48 44 40 36 32 27
12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 58 57 52 48 44 40 36 32 27
6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 53 48 44 40 36 32 28 23
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT