* ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  LEE         AL142017  09/18/17  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    29    28    27    25    23    22    21    20    19    20    21    22
V (KT) LAND       30    29    28    27    25    23    22    21    20    19    20    21    22
V (KT) LGEM       30    29    27    26    24    20    18   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

SHEAR (KT)        38    36    29    28    28    29    21   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     3     8    12    12     7     6   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR DIR        296   300   304   298   299   286   278   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SST (C)         28.0  27.9  27.9  27.8  27.7  27.6  27.7   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
POT. INT. (KT)   137   135   135   133   132   131   133   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
ADJ. POT. INT.   134   129   128   125   123   122   123   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB T (C)   -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 -54.7   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.2  -0.2  -0.5  -0.4  -0.4   0.4  -0.3  N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A 
TH_E DEV (C)      10    10    10     9    10    10    10   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
700-500 MB RH     45    46    50    51    53    54    51   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
MODEL VTX (KT)    10    10    10     9     8     7     7  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR   -15   -12    -8    -2     4     0    27   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB DIV        14    49    83    85    64    38    19   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
700-850 TADV      -2     0     2     5     6     6     8   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAND (KM)       1591  1588  1586  1604  1626  1702  1804   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAT (DEG N)     14.8  15.4  15.9  16.6  17.2  18.6  20.2   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LONG(DEG W)     41.7  42.4  43.2  43.7  44.3  45.3  46.5   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
STM SPEED (KT)    11     9     9     8     8     9    10   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
HEAT CONTENT      17    19    26    33    29    13    16     0     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14      CX,CY: -12/  6
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  847  (MEAN=618)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  24.0 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  35.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            0.0

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   1.   2.   3.   6.  10.  14.  18.  21.  23.  25.  26.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG    -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -6.  -8. -13. -16. -20. -23. -24. -25.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -0.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -7.  -7.  -7.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.
  PERSISTENCE           -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY    -0.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8.  -9. -10. -10.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE     -0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES   -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE          -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7.  -8.  -9. -10. -11. -10.  -9.  -8.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   30. LAT, LON:   14.8    41.7

      ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE        09/18/17  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.60         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    31.8      30.1  to    2.9       0.00           0.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    24.8       0.0  to  156.2       0.16         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.8       2.4  to   -3.0       0.59         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    24.0      36.6  to    2.8       0.37         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    30.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.21         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :    97.7      28.4  to  139.6       0.62         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    59.0     -29.7  to  181.5       0.42         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   233.0     961.4  to  -67.1       0.71         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:    69.5     100.0  to    0.0       0.31         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   3% is   0.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  10% is   0.9 times sample mean (11.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     2.8%   10.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     0.5%    0.3%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.1%    0.1%    0.0%
    Bayesian:     0.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     1.1%    3.5%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE        09/18/17  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE        09/18/2017  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  30    29    28    27    25    23    22    21    20    19    20    21    22
 18HR AGO           30    29    28    27    25    23    22    21    20    19    20    21    22
 12HR AGO           30    27    26    25    23    21    20    19    18    17    18    19    20
  6HR AGO           30    24    21    20    18    16    15   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT