* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MARIA AL152017 09/18/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 110 117 121 124 125 125 123 119 113 104 97 95 94
V (KT) LAND 110 117 121 124 125 125 108 110 105 96 89 87 86
V (KT) LGEM 110 119 124 125 124 121 104 107 106 103 97 94 91
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 3 3 0 1 1 3 8 5 9 9 9 17 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 10 7 6 2 3 3 6 6 5 6 0
SHEAR DIR 80 124 338 210 352 289 11 313 310 281 261 253 242
SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 159 158 158 156 154 153 154 154 154 154 157
ADJ. POT. INT. 150 151 152 150 149 147 145 142 143 139 138 138 139
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.2 -51.3 -50.5 -51.3 -50.5 -51.1 -50.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.2
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 9 9
700-500 MB RH 65 59 60 63 60 61 64 60 61 62 67 66 68
MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 24 27 28 29 31 30 31 30 32 35 38
850 MB ENV VOR 12 16 21 29 32 44 51 53 60 55 60 53 59
200 MB DIV 103 92 80 76 85 44 50 32 89 65 82 49 99
700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 0 0 3 3 3 8 15 15 14
LAND (KM) 460 494 511 421 331 148 -11 78 85 160 255 392 524
LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.3 18.1 19.1 20.1 21.2 22.1 23.4 24.9
LONG(DEG W) 60.4 61.1 61.8 62.5 63.2 64.7 66.1 67.6 69.2 70.4 71.3 72.1 72.7
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 7 7 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 63 16 65 60 62 56 81 55 55 67 64 64 46
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -16. -22. -28. -33. -37. -41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 5. 3. 4. 8. 10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 14. 15. 15. 13. 9. 3. -6. -13. -15. -16.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 14.9 60.4
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/18/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 19.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.8 30.1 to 2.9 1.00 8.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 53.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.34 2.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.45 3.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 7.4
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.17 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.11 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.55 1.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 520.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.43 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 38% is 7.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.4 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 38.5% 50.5% 45.0% 24.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 42.3% 59.7% 47.9% 38.1% 33.4% 27.7% 6.2% 1.4%
Bayesian: 54.7% 24.2% 23.2% 7.7% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 45.2% 44.8% 38.7% 23.5% 11.9% 9.3% 2.1% 0.5%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/18/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/18/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 117 121 124 125 125 108 110 105 96 89 87 86
18HR AGO 110 109 113 116 117 117 100 102 97 88 81 79 78
12HR AGO 110 107 106 109 110 110 93 95 90 81 74 72 71
6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 101 101 84 86 81 72 65 63 62
NOW 110 101 95 92 91 91 74 76 71 62 55 53 52
IN 6HR 110 117 108 102 99 100 83 85 80 71 64 62 61
IN 12HR 110 117 121 112 106 102 85 87 82 73 66 64 63