* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOSE AL122017 09/19/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 62 60 60 60 55 51 46 43 37 31 25
V (KT) LAND 65 63 62 60 60 60 55 51 46 43 37 31 25
V (KT) LGEM 65 64 64 63 62 58 53 49 47 47 47 47 46
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 33 30 21 20 19 14 19 12 12 6 14 16 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -2 -4 -1 -2 -3 0 -4 0 -4 -2 0
SHEAR DIR 221 232 225 206 208 208 227 229 245 268 286 302 279
SST (C) 27.4 27.4 26.9 26.3 25.4 23.2 22.5 22.9 23.7 24.4 24.7 25.5 26.3
POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 122 116 107 91 87 87 92 96 99 106 114
ADJ. POT. INT. 106 105 101 96 89 78 74 73 76 78 80 86 91
200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -53.1 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 2 4 2 1 0 1 1 4
700-500 MB RH 54 55 57 56 53 52 45 42 39 42 44 42 42
MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 38 37 38 38 36 33 30 28 25 22 20
850 MB ENV VOR 71 61 70 67 63 70 51 27 30 34 7 -23 -52
200 MB DIV 35 2 28 64 58 52 30 9 17 -25 -25 -50 -30
700-850 TADV 15 16 9 2 2 0 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 418 415 412 386 362 282 278 322 358 384 391 419 462
LAT (DEG N) 34.8 35.6 36.3 37.1 37.8 39.1 39.7 39.8 39.5 39.1 38.9 38.4 37.8
LONG(DEG W) 71.4 71.3 71.2 71.0 70.8 69.8 68.4 67.5 67.3 67.4 67.6 68.0 68.5
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 6 5 2 2 2 2 4 3
HEAT CONTENT 7 9 44 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -15. -19. -23. -25. -27. -28. -29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. -2. -7. -12. -15. -19. -24. -27.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -10. -14. -19. -22. -28. -34. -40.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 34.8 71.4
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/19/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.20 0.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.10 0.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.38 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.6
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.05 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.32 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 317.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.63 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 62.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.37 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 7.5% 6.1% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.4% 2.7% 2.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/19/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/19/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 62 60 60 60 55 51 46 43 37 31 25
18HR AGO 65 64 63 61 61 61 56 52 47 44 38 32 26
12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 59 59 54 50 45 42 36 30 24
6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 55 50 46 41 38 32 26 20
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT