* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOSE AL122017 09/19/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 62 61 59 56 51 47 45 41 38 35 30
V (KT) LAND 65 63 62 61 59 56 51 47 45 41 38 35 30
V (KT) LGEM 65 65 64 62 61 55 50 48 47 47 48 49 48
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 33 17 21 23 19 16 22 14 11 13 18 18 26
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 0 -5 -7 -4 1 -5 -1 -1 -4 -3 -1 -4
SHEAR DIR 237 226 206 210 209 202 236 220 259 261 269 270 283
SST (C) 27.3 26.8 26.0 25.1 23.8 22.1 22.0 23.1 24.3 25.0 25.3 25.6 26.0
POT. INT. (KT) 127 121 113 105 95 86 84 89 96 101 103 106 110
ADJ. POT. INT. 104 100 94 88 81 74 71 74 79 81 83 85 89
200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -51.5 -51.7 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6
200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.5 1.0 1.4 0.8 1.0 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 3 5 3 3 0 2 1 3 2
700-500 MB RH 55 56 55 52 51 50 42 37 38 39 39 39 43
MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 37 39 38 39 36 34 33 30 29 28 27
850 MB ENV VOR 60 59 62 60 55 69 26 29 40 23 13 -13 -27
200 MB DIV 5 23 55 43 43 36 -4 2 13 -20 -8 -56 -50
700-850 TADV 14 6 2 1 0 1 -1 -4 0 1 0 1 0
LAND (KM) 406 400 363 350 285 251 288 348 387 410 423 433 445
LAT (DEG N) 35.6 36.4 37.2 38.0 38.7 39.7 40.1 39.8 39.2 38.8 38.6 38.3 38.0
LONG(DEG W) 71.4 71.3 71.2 70.8 70.5 69.0 67.7 67.1 67.2 67.4 67.5 67.9 68.4
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 7 3 3 3 2 1 2 3
HEAT CONTENT 15 56 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -18. -22. -25. -27. -28. -29. -29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. -0. -0. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -18. -19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -14. -18. -20. -24. -27. -30. -35.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 35.6 71.4
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/19/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.27 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.10 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.43 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.30 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 331.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.61 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 44.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.9% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/19/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/19/2017 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 62 61 59 56 51 47 45 41 38 35 30
18HR AGO 65 64 63 62 60 57 52 48 46 42 39 36 31
12HR AGO 65 62 61 60 58 55 50 46 44 40 37 34 29
6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 50 45 41 39 35 32 29 24
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT