* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MARIA AL152017 09/19/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 135 140 141 141 138 130 125 120 109 105 98 101 99
V (KT) LAND 135 140 141 141 138 115 121 116 105 101 94 97 95
V (KT) LGEM 135 139 139 136 132 109 115 111 106 101 98 95 92
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 4 2 5 3 5 12 5 12 13 9 11 7 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 4 3 4 3 5 7 7 6 6 2 4
SHEAR DIR 153 63 37 9 295 344 7 298 275 270 242 253 268
SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6
POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 156 154 153 153 154 154 154 154 157 161
ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 150 147 145 142 141 141 140 139 137 138 140
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.3 -51.3 -50.1 -50.7 -50.2 -50.4 -49.4 -49.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3
TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 9
700-500 MB RH 60 61 59 59 58 58 56 60 61 67 64 67 63
MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 28 30 31 31 32 35 34 38 38 44 44
850 MB ENV VOR 24 31 33 42 45 53 56 61 51 60 60 70 72
200 MB DIV 104 93 102 49 21 -6 17 74 23 105 81 115 52
700-850 TADV 3 3 4 2 5 6 3 6 9 18 8 15 19
LAND (KM) 490 398 307 219 131 -11 93 91 151 277 417 537 658
LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.4 19.2 20.1 21.1 22.3 23.6 24.9 26.3
LONG(DEG W) 61.9 62.6 63.4 64.0 64.7 66.2 67.7 69.0 70.2 71.1 71.9 72.4 72.7
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 59 63 65 70 17 79 57 61 67 69 64 48 50
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -5. -12. -23. -35. -45. -54. -60. -64. -69.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 15. 18.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 4. 3. 0. -2. -3. -3. -0. -0. -2. -4. -4. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 10. 10. 17. 15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 6. 6. 3. -5. -10. -15. -26. -30. -37. -34. -36.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 15.8 61.9
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/19/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.96 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 54.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.47 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.97 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 135.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.49 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 719.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.24 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 24.2% 12.9% 8.7% 3.2% 2.5% 3.3% 1.6% 0.1%
Bayesian: 36.4% 8.8% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 20.2% 7.2% 5.0% 1.1% 0.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/19/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/19/2017 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 135 140 141 141 138 115 121 116 105 101 94 97 95
18HR AGO 135 134 135 135 132 109 115 110 99 95 88 91 89
12HR AGO 135 132 131 131 128 105 111 106 95 91 84 87 85
6HR AGO 135 129 126 125 122 99 105 100 89 85 78 81 79
NOW 135 126 120 117 116 93 99 94 83 79 72 75 73
IN 6HR 135 140 131 125 122 100 106 101 90 86 79 82 80
IN 12HR 135 140 141 132 126 122 128 123 112 108 101 104 102