* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOSE AL122017 09/19/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 61 60 55 51 47 44 41 37 32 24
V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 61 60 55 51 47 44 41 37 32 24
V (KT) LGEM 65 65 64 62 60 54 49 48 48 49 49 49 46
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 20 15 26 21 16 20 13 12 12 13 14 21 20
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -7 -7 -1 -2 -2 -1 -3 -4 -3 -2 -3
SHEAR DIR 232 204 205 214 214 210 222 245 249 265 295 277 287
SST (C) 26.6 26.0 25.1 24.2 23.0 21.9 22.8 24.0 24.7 25.1 25.5 25.5 25.5
POT. INT. (KT) 119 113 105 98 91 84 87 94 99 101 104 105 105
ADJ. POT. INT. 98 94 88 83 78 73 74 77 80 81 82 84 84
200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -51.5 -51.1 -51.6 -52.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.6 2.5 1.7 1.7 0.9 1.6 0.8 0.7 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 3 2 4 2 1 0 1 1 3 1
700-500 MB RH 55 54 52 52 52 46 40 38 40 40 42 40 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 39 38 38 36 34 32 30 29 27 25 22
850 MB ENV VOR 63 65 68 56 68 49 31 42 41 22 0 -45 -43
200 MB DIV 28 46 48 40 51 23 3 10 -10 -11 -40 -28 -49
700-850 TADV 6 -1 2 1 3 -5 -2 -2 3 0 1 1 0
LAND (KM) 375 361 349 308 279 264 349 403 419 432 457 449 432
LAT (DEG N) 36.4 37.2 37.9 38.6 39.2 40.0 40.0 39.6 39.1 38.8 38.7 38.6 38.5
LONG(DEG W) 71.6 71.3 70.9 70.3 69.7 68.2 66.9 66.5 66.8 67.0 66.7 67.0 67.5
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 3 2 2 1 0 2 2
HEAT CONTENT 50 10 0 0 0 0 0 12 9 8 25 10 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -20. -23. -26. -27. -28. -29. -30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -26.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -4. -5. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -28. -33. -40.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 36.4 71.6
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/19/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.39 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.43 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.34 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 352.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.59 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 33.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.1% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/19/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/19/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 64 61 60 55 51 47 44 41 37 32 24
18HR AGO 65 64 64 61 60 55 51 47 44 41 37 32 24
12HR AGO 65 62 61 58 57 52 48 44 41 38 34 29 21
6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 49 45 41 38 35 31 26 18
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT