* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* OTIS EP152017 09/19/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 24 22 20 19 20 20 20 18 17
V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 25 24 22 20 19 20 20 20 18 17
V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 23 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 7 4 5 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 204 190 137 127 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 120 121 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 46 46 45 44 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 1 0 8 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 32 39 45 41 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1656 1714 1772 1834 1896 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 19.1 18.8 18.5 18.2 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 128.2 128.7 129.1 129.5 130.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 21. 19.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.1 128.2
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 OTIS 09/19/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.46 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 70.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 238.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.61 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 OTIS 09/19/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##