* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LEE AL142017 09/20/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 41 41 42 43 44 46 46 44 42 38
V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 41 41 42 43 44 46 46 44 42 38
V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 42 41 39 38 38 40 43 46 47 45
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 33 25 20 20 25 17 21 14 12 22 34 34 47
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 6 5 0 6 0 -1 -5 -9 -9 -3 -7
SHEAR DIR 297 290 262 255 264 298 277 315 257 260 257 270 270
SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.1 26.4 26.1 26.0 25.4 25.1
POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 130 133 135 135 135 127 120 117 115 108 104
ADJ. POT. INT. 124 121 122 125 128 128 122 112 106 105 102 94 90
200 MB T (C) -54.5 -55.0 -55.0 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 -55.7 -55.8 -56.3 -56.6 -56.6 -57.0 -56.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 8 9 8 7 6 5 3 4
700-500 MB RH 53 53 52 52 53 58 57 56 52 50 46 42 35
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 8 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 13 16 33 53 65 52 19 -31 -51 -59 -54 -23 -18
200 MB DIV 38 57 48 7 -3 33 19 15 8 9 5 -4 -28
700-850 TADV 6 6 10 13 13 15 14 3 -9 -2 -14 -5 -6
LAND (KM) 1617 1682 1776 1913 2056 2247 2084 1844 1848 2077 1921 1652 1490
LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.4 19.2 20.4 21.8 25.4 28.9 31.6 32.9 32.7 31.7 30.5 29.6
LONG(DEG W) 45.1 45.3 45.0 44.6 44.5 45.3 45.6 44.2 41.0 37.0 33.3 30.8 29.4
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 11 13 16 19 16 14 16 17 14 10 7
HEAT CONTENT 26 20 18 17 17 16 7 1 2 2 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 783 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -10. -13. -18.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. -2.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.6 45.1
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/20/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.20 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.13 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.77 2.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.07 0.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.50 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.28 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 294.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.65 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 81.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.18 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 13.3% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.3% 2.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 1.8% 1.7%
Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.7% 5.2% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/20/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/20/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 41 41 42 43 44 46 46 44 42 38
18HR AGO 40 39 40 39 39 40 41 42 44 44 42 40 36
12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 35 36 37 38 40 40 38 36 32
6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 31 32 33 35 35 33 31 27
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT