* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MARIA AL152017 09/20/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 140 138 138 139 136 129 117 107 105 101 101 100 95
V (KT) LAND 140 123 126 126 124 116 105 95 93 89 89 88 83
V (KT) LGEM 140 134 110 120 118 113 110 107 104 100 97 95 88
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 2 5 9 13 9 15 11 15 11 21
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 1 5 7 8 6 4 0 4 2 7
SHEAR DIR 223 277 353 217 295 290 253 223 231 242 260 269 292
SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.4 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 153 153 152 154 154 154 156 159 161 158 148
ADJ. POT. INT. 148 145 143 142 140 140 139 138 138 140 141 136 125
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -50.3 -50.9 -50.0 -50.4 -49.6 -49.6 -48.8 -49.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.1
TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 9
700-500 MB RH 55 55 56 53 52 55 60 66 65 67 64 66 63
MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 33 32 32 33 33 35 41 42 45 47 47
850 MB ENV VOR 44 48 50 62 52 54 49 60 51 61 57 63 61
200 MB DIV 53 31 37 19 -2 66 60 122 90 129 78 67 19
700-850 TADV 4 8 4 2 -2 3 14 20 10 19 19 16 27
LAND (KM) 95 1 0 52 89 115 195 322 473 605 746 770 610
LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.0 19.4 20.5 21.5 22.7 24.1 25.5 27.0 28.7 30.4
LONG(DEG W) 65.1 65.9 66.6 67.4 68.1 69.2 70.3 71.1 71.8 72.2 72.3 72.5 72.6
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 48 20 12 52 54 57 70 73 60 45 43 31 25
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 145 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -9. -17. -29. -41. -52. -61. -67. -71. -77.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 17.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 10. 12. 15. 16. 15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. -4. -11. -23. -33. -35. -39. -39. -40. -45.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 17.6 65.1
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/20/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.93 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.54 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.97 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 140.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.27 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 900.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.06 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.8% 1.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/20/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/20/2017 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 123 126 126 124 116 105 95 93 89 89 88 83
18HR AGO 140 139 142 142 140 132 121 111 109 105 105 104 99
12HR AGO 140 137 136 136 134 126 115 105 103 99 99 98 93
6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 128 120 109 99 97 93 93 92 87
NOW 140 131 125 122 121 113 102 92 90 86 86 85 80
IN 6HR 140 123 114 108 105 101 90 80 78 74 74 73 68
IN 12HR 140 123 126 117 111 107 96 86 84 80 80 79 74