* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LEE AL142017 09/20/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 26 25 25 27 29 33 36 37 40 41 42
V (KT) LAND 30 27 26 25 25 27 29 33 36 37 40 41 42
V (KT) LGEM 30 27 24 23 22 21 22 23 25 28 32 35 36
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 25 19 14 15 15 15 13 13 19 26 23 28 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 5 2 3 0 -1 -3 -9 -5 -2 -4 -4
SHEAR DIR 303 307 295 275 295 298 308 295 255 260 245 272 279
SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.2
POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 134 137 137 136 134 127 122 118 117 116 116
ADJ. POT. INT. 120 119 125 132 133 127 119 109 103 100 100 99 100
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.5 -56.0 -56.3 -56.8 -57.1 -57.4 -57.4 -57.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 4 5 5
700-500 MB RH 52 51 52 52 54 57 56 61 60 58 58 55 51
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 39 45 44 40 33 17 -40 -63 -78 -91 -76 -78 -75
200 MB DIV 19 11 0 13 11 3 -7 17 10 -26 -9 -32 -58
700-850 TADV 7 7 10 13 14 9 1 6 -4 -1 -6 0 1
LAND (KM) 1602 1632 1711 1846 1991 2107 1938 1761 1724 1770 1883 2047 2120
LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.9 19.6 20.9 22.7 26.7 29.9 31.8 32.7 33.0 33.0 32.6 32.1
LONG(DEG W) 47.2 47.4 47.2 47.1 47.0 47.3 47.1 46.1 44.4 42.5 40.1 37.7 35.4
STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 10 16 19 19 13 9 8 8 11 10 11
HEAT CONTENT 16 16 17 20 29 16 8 5 10 6 2 2 3
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 804 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 21.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -3. -6. -10. -13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4.
PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -13. -14. -15. -15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. 3. 6. 7. 10. 11. 12.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.5 47.2
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/20/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.46 1.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.13 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.55 1.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.4
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.61 1.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.19 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 196.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 11.3% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.5% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.5%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.0% 4.2% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/20/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/20/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 27 26 25 25 27 29 33 36 37 40 41 42
18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 29 31 35 38 39 42 43 44
12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 27 29 33 36 37 40 41 42
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 24 28 31 32 35 36 37
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT