* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MARIA AL152017 09/22/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 110 107 104 103 104 105 105 104 101 95 94 89 80
V (KT) LAND 110 107 104 103 104 105 105 104 101 95 94 89 80
V (KT) LGEM 110 108 105 104 103 101 100 99 94 87 79 73 68
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 19 20 22 18 12 14 6 16 16 23 11 10 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 1 3 -3 -5 2
SHEAR DIR 236 225 222 215 216 242 244 289 316 304 280 306 346
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.2 27.6 27.4 27.4
POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 156 158 159 161 157 151 146 138 129 127 126
ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 139 139 140 139 132 126 121 114 106 104 102
200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -50.6 -50.6 -49.8 -50.1 -49.4 -49.4 -49.2 -49.5 -50.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.6
TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 7
700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 66 66 61 60 57 62 59 64 64 63
MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 35 36 39 41 42 44 46 46 48 47 43
850 MB ENV VOR 40 36 26 31 30 37 52 76 88 99 98 92 73
200 MB DIV 111 94 67 67 78 75 77 18 50 27 57 -10 0
700-850 TADV 23 9 9 8 11 15 13 11 13 16 10 4 7
LAND (KM) 333 416 495 571 635 771 796 727 675 620 549 495 462
LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.6 24.3 25.1 25.8 27.3 28.6 29.6 30.5 31.5 32.6 33.6 34.5
LONG(DEG W) 71.2 71.5 71.8 72.0 72.2 72.3 72.2 71.8 71.4 71.1 71.0 71.0 71.0
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 60 57 51 43 42 41 21 15 17 17 11 8 3
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -2. -6. -13. -22. -30. -37. -43. -48. -53.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -11. -12. -12. -9. -5. -2. -0. 3. 6. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 15. 13. 16. 13. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -6. -9. -15. -16. -21. -30.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 22.8 71.2
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/22/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.44 1.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.32 0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.59 1.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 2.4
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.17 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.01 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.54 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 438.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.51 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 13.7% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.8% 3.7% 2.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.2% 6.0% 4.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/22/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/22/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 107 104 103 104 105 105 104 101 95 94 89 80
18HR AGO 110 109 106 105 106 107 107 106 103 97 96 91 82
12HR AGO 110 107 106 105 106 107 107 106 103 97 96 91 82
6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 101 102 102 101 98 92 91 86 77
NOW 110 101 95 92 91 92 92 91 88 82 81 76 67
IN 6HR 110 107 98 92 89 87 87 86 83 77 76 71 62
IN 12HR 110 107 104 95 89 85 85 84 81 75 74 69 60