* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MARIA AL152017 09/23/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 107 108 110 113 113 108 102 94 92 85 75
V (KT) LAND 110 108 107 108 110 113 113 108 102 94 92 85 75
V (KT) LGEM 110 109 107 107 107 107 105 99 92 84 75 67 63
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 22 19 14 6 9 8 5 15 18 18 12 15 20
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 0 0 0 -2 4 2 2 -5 -5 0
SHEAR DIR 223 220 211 211 241 268 236 327 306 318 286 341 336
SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.4
POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 158 160 161 159 153 146 140 133 130 127 127
ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 140 141 141 135 128 121 115 109 106 104 103
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.9 -51.5 -50.8 -50.9 -50.1 -49.5 -49.6 -49.4 -49.3 -48.9 -49.2 -49.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 7
700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 66 63 60 57 57 59 62 64 64 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 34 36 38 39 40 44 45 45 46 46 48 46 42
850 MB ENV VOR 41 33 32 35 35 45 63 80 79 84 84 78 43
200 MB DIV 118 85 96 90 82 77 32 28 10 24 25 -8 -8
700-850 TADV 12 12 10 14 11 10 3 9 12 15 5 -1 -4
LAND (KM) 433 511 581 656 731 754 704 633 571 505 433 397 419
LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.5 25.2 26.1 26.9 28.4 29.5 30.4 31.3 32.2 33.1 34.1 35.2
LONG(DEG W) 71.6 71.9 72.1 72.3 72.4 72.6 72.4 72.2 72.0 72.0 72.1 71.9 71.3
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 56 49 42 43 46 29 15 17 21 18 2 29 1
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -6. -14. -23. -31. -39. -45. -49. -54.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -8. -8. -6. -2. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 11. 12. 10. 12. 9. 4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -0. 3. 4. -2. -8. -16. -18. -25. -35.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 23.7 71.6
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/23/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.59 1.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 47.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.30 0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.60 1.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 2.4
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.17 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.01 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.59 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 463.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.48 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 5.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 15.1% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 5.0% 8.6% 5.6% 2.5% 1.0% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0%
Bayesian: 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.7% 8.1% 6.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/23/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/23/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 108 107 108 110 113 113 108 102 94 92 85 75
18HR AGO 110 109 108 109 111 114 114 109 103 95 93 86 76
12HR AGO 110 107 106 107 109 112 112 107 101 93 91 84 74
6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 102 105 105 100 94 86 84 77 67
NOW 110 101 95 92 91 94 94 89 83 75 73 66 56
IN 6HR 110 108 99 93 90 91 91 86 80 72 70 63 53
IN 12HR 110 108 107 98 92 88 88 83 77 69 67 60 50