* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LEE AL142017 09/23/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 47 50 55 61 64 66 65 65 63 63
V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 47 50 55 61 64 66 65 65 63 63
V (KT) LGEM 40 42 45 47 50 57 64 69 72 72 70 68 67
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 2 6 6 1 9 8 14 11 20 19 24 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -1 -2 -4 -6 -6 -5 -6 -6 -3 0
SHEAR DIR 355 217 236 265 271 236 272 245 235 238 235 232 242
SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7
POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 127 127 128 127 127 126 125 126 128 130 130
ADJ. POT. INT. 105 104 103 104 105 106 106 104 103 104 106 108 108
200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.5 -55.7 -56.2 -56.5 -56.7 -57.3 -57.2 -57.1 -56.9 -57.1 -57.0 -56.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 8
700-500 MB RH 57 55 53 54 56 59 55 47 43 40 41 42 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 6 5 4 4
850 MB ENV VOR -52 -63 -62 -73 -77 -67 -68 -82 -82 -92 -82 -83 -90
200 MB DIV -1 7 -6 2 -8 1 -26 -37 -14 1 0 3 -7
700-850 TADV 0 1 2 -1 -3 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 -1
LAND (KM) 1686 1662 1638 1652 1667 1747 1837 1925 1998 2033 2010 1948 1865
LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.1 32.3 32.3 32.2 31.7 31.2 30.6 30.0 29.6 29.6 30.0 30.6
LONG(DEG W) 49.4 49.2 49.0 48.6 48.1 47.0 45.7 44.9 44.6 44.8 45.6 46.3 47.0
STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 6 5 4 3 2 3 4 5
HEAT CONTENT 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 21. 24. 26. 25. 25. 23. 23.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.8 49.4
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/23/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.98 3.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 0.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.40 1.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 2.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.32 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.13 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 240.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.70 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 67.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.33 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 16.3% 13.1% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.9% 13.9% 8.6% 4.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.8% 0.9%
Bayesian: 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.4% 10.1% 7.2% 4.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/23/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/23/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 47 50 55 61 64 66 65 65 63 63
18HR AGO 40 39 41 44 47 52 58 61 63 62 62 60 60
12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 42 47 53 56 58 57 57 55 55
6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 38 44 47 49 48 48 46 46
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT