* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MARIA AL152017 09/24/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 90 92 93 90 84 77 73 66 59 53 49
V (KT) LAND 90 90 90 92 93 90 84 77 73 66 59 53 49
V (KT) LGEM 90 88 88 87 87 83 78 73 69 66 62 58 54
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 9 7 11 7 8 15 9 13 10 15 8 13 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 2 3 4 -1 -3 0 2 6 9 7
SHEAR DIR 197 242 314 327 316 311 326 296 295 333 313 308 237
SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.0 27.0 27.4 27.6 27.1
POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 147 143 140 134 130 126 121 122 128 131 125
ADJ. POT. INT. 132 127 123 119 116 111 106 102 98 100 105 108 103
200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.4 -50.5 -50.1 -49.7 -49.8 -49.5 -49.4 -49.5 -50.1 -50.4 -50.8 -50.3
200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.9 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 5 1 2
700-500 MB RH 61 56 55 54 58 62 65 62 58 54 50 44 38
MODEL VTX (KT) 41 43 41 43 44 43 42 41 41 39 37 35 34
850 MB ENV VOR 68 74 81 87 81 67 64 56 55 30 52 81 72
200 MB DIV 83 69 26 26 50 34 33 -10 16 4 8 8 51
700-850 TADV 7 6 12 13 17 26 15 4 4 8 19 23 -7
LAND (KM) 714 650 587 533 481 391 326 264 245 309 448 588 618
LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.7 30.3 30.9 31.4 32.4 33.3 34.1 34.7 35.3 35.7 36.2 36.8
LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.1 73.2 73.2 73.3 73.4 73.4 73.5 73.4 72.5 70.9 69.0 67.0
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 4 6 7 8 9
HEAT CONTENT 33 25 19 20 19 11 11 10 9 20 22 21 16
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -13. -21. -27. -32. -35. -37. -41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -16.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 3. -0. -6. -13. -17. -24. -31. -37. -41.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 29.1 73.0
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/24/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 3.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.79 2.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.15 0.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.05 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.38 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 522.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.43 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 6.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 12.0% 10.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.9% 4.7% 3.2% 2.2% 1.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Bayesian: 3.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.1% 5.6% 4.5% 3.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/24/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/24/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 90 90 92 93 90 84 77 73 66 59 53 49
18HR AGO 90 89 89 91 92 89 83 76 72 65 58 52 48
12HR AGO 90 87 86 88 89 86 80 73 69 62 55 49 45
6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 81 78 72 65 61 54 47 41 37
NOW 90 81 75 72 71 68 62 55 51 44 37 31 27
IN 6HR 90 90 81 75 72 70 64 57 53 46 39 33 29
IN 12HR 90 90 90 81 75 71 65 58 54 47 40 34 30