* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MARIA AL152017 09/25/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 64 61 59 56 52 51 45 44 46 44 33
V (KT) LAND 70 66 64 61 59 56 52 51 45 44 46 44 33
V (KT) LGEM 70 66 63 62 61 59 58 56 54 53 54 53 49
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 14 13 19 18 17 16 14 15 9 7 12 25 33
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 3 -1 0 0 0 9 5 5 14 17
SHEAR DIR 302 298 304 311 316 288 291 303 335 271 214 222 219
SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.7 25.9 23.1
POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 124 123 122 119 116 114 117 122 124 117 97
ADJ. POT. INT. 107 105 104 102 101 97 94 94 98 105 109 104 87
200 MB T (C) -50.0 -49.9 -50.0 -50.1 -50.1 -49.8 -50.3 -50.2 -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 -49.6 -49.9
200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 7 7 5 7 4 3 3 2 1
700-500 MB RH 57 58 60 61 64 65 65 60 59 48 40 38 33
MODEL VTX (KT) 41 41 41 41 40 40 39 40 37 36 37 36 32
850 MB ENV VOR 72 62 62 50 42 49 24 23 32 61 94 100 125
200 MB DIV 24 37 28 27 31 0 10 6 6 19 57 59 39
700-850 TADV 14 12 13 18 12 4 5 3 7 25 6 10 21
LAND (KM) 551 500 451 405 361 307 284 320 431 589 677 708 644
LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.4 31.9 32.5 33.0 33.9 34.6 35.2 35.7 36.5 37.5 39.0 40.9
LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.1 73.1 73.1 73.2 73.1 73.0 72.4 71.1 68.4 64.1 59.1 53.6
STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 6 5 4 3 5 9 15 20 22 23
HEAT CONTENT 15 15 11 6 1 10 10 10 8 6 1 4 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -24.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7.
PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -9. -12. -11. -12. -18.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -18. -19. -25. -26. -24. -26. -37.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 30.8 73.0
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/25/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.51 1.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 0.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.58 1.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.05 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.28 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 389.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.56 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 7.8% 6.9% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.2% 2.8% 2.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/25/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/25/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 66 64 61 59 56 52 51 45 44 46 44 33
18HR AGO 70 69 67 64 62 59 55 54 48 47 49 47 36
12HR AGO 70 67 66 63 61 58 54 53 47 46 48 46 35
6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 58 55 51 50 44 43 45 43 32
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT