* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LEE AL142017 09/26/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 79 80 82 84 85 78 71 60 50 65 50
V (KT) LAND 80 79 79 80 82 84 85 78 71 60 50 65 50
V (KT) LGEM 80 80 80 81 81 82 81 77 70 60 56 52 43
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 6 5 7 13 23 35 31 31 8 21
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 3 -3 0 -5 0 2 -1 2 2 12 12
SHEAR DIR 113 93 87 43 4 307 340 352 2 359 346 280 262
SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 27.9 27.5 26.7 25.8 23.1 20.3 16.4
POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 134 136 137 137 133 130 123 116 98 86 76
ADJ. POT. INT. 110 112 114 115 115 113 110 109 107 104 89 79 72
200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.5 -56.4 -56.0 -55.7 -55.4 -53.5 -53.1 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -50.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 8 2 0 0
700-500 MB RH 46 45 44 45 44 44 43 43 40 48 56 59 43
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 18 19 19 21 20 20 16 13 28 20
850 MB ENV VOR -71 -74 -67 -75 -78 -86 -104 -130 -169 -143 -2 101 135
200 MB DIV -33 -13 -16 1 -2 -25 -40 -26 -32 15 47 64 16
700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -3 -1 0 0 6 17 33 32 -89 -24
LAND (KM) 1820 1814 1809 1767 1728 1612 1521 1405 1244 954 841 1118 1568
LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.6 31.3 32.2 33.5 35.5 38.4 42.0 45.3 48.4
LONG(DEG W) 51.0 51.8 52.6 53.5 54.4 55.6 55.7 55.0 53.5 50.1 44.8 38.6 31.7
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 7 5 6 9 16 23 27 28 27
HEAT CONTENT 13 16 16 20 20 14 13 17 7 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -1
T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -19. -22. -26. -29. -34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -2. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 3. -2. -8. 12. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. -2. -9. -20. -30. -15. -30.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 30.4 51.0
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/26/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.81 2.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.11 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.28 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.9
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.65 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.04 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.08 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 642.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.31 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 77.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.23 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 12.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.6% 4.9% 3.1% 2.3% 1.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.5% 5.7% 4.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/26/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/26/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 79 79 80 82 84 85 78 71 60 50 65 50
18HR AGO 80 79 79 80 82 84 85 78 71 60 50 65 50
12HR AGO 80 77 76 77 79 81 82 75 68 57 47 62 47
6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 72 74 75 68 61 50 40 55 40
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT