* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LEE AL142017 09/26/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 96 97 95 93 85 70 60 46 55 53 51
V (KT) LAND 95 96 96 97 95 93 85 70 60 46 55 53 51
V (KT) LGEM 95 97 97 96 95 90 81 70 59 54 52 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 6 10 12 8 6 18 25 30 25 18 11 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -6 -3 -2 0 1 3 1 13 12 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 38 330 331 313 297 348 5 13 352 294 328 N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.2 26.1 22.7 21.4 17.5 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 139 139 138 133 128 119 97 92 81 N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 117 116 115 112 111 106 90 87 78 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -56.1 -55.7 -55.7 -55.4 -54.4 -53.2 -52.2 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 9 5 0 0 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 46 45 44 46 44 43 43 45 54 56 55 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 21 19 21 21 16 15 11 24 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -66 -74 -81 -81 -91 -122 -147 -138 -24 5 4 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -5 -3 -9 -20 -26 -39 -28 -1 66 55 34 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 0 6 9 26 44 3 -122 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1738 1703 1672 1655 1591 1454 1276 1044 748 1031 1463 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.7 31.1 32.4 34.4 37.3 40.8 44.3 47.6 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 54.2 54.9 55.6 56.1 56.5 56.7 56.1 53.5 48.6 40.3 29.5 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 8 14 22 31 38 40 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 14 14 14 14 12 13 9 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -12. -18. -25. -32. -39. -44. -46. -49.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -3. -1. -0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 2. 0. 2. 1. -4. -7. -14. 3. 2. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -10. -25. -35. -49. -40. -42. -44.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 29.9 54.2
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/26/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.79 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.40 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.41 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.08 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 745.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.21 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 59.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.41 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.6% 6.9% 4.7% 2.5% 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0%
Bayesian: 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.1% 2.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/26/17 18 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/26/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 96 96 97 95 93 85 70 60 46 55 53 51
18HR AGO 95 94 94 95 93 91 83 68 58 44 53 51 49
12HR AGO 95 92 91 92 90 88 80 65 55 41 50 48 46
6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 83 81 73 58 48 34 43 41 39
NOW 95 86 80 77 76 74 66 51 41 27 36 34 32
IN 6HR 95 96 87 81 78 74 66 51 41 27 36 34 32
IN 12HR 95 96 96 87 81 77 69 54 44 30 39 37 35