* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LEE AL142017 09/27/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 98 97 98 91 81 67 71 68 50 48 46
V (KT) LAND 95 96 98 97 98 91 81 67 71 68 50 48 46
V (KT) LGEM 95 96 97 97 94 87 77 68 64 58 47 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 7 10 6 9 14 22 28 29 15 22 46 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -4 -1 0 0 -1 9 5 11 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 331 328 306 307 328 8 9 359 328 303 284 N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.4 26.5 24.9 22.0 18.0 15.1 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 139 138 135 129 122 110 94 82 77 N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 117 116 113 110 108 101 88 78 74 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.4 -55.1 -54.1 -53.3 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 -52.0 -51.2 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 7 1 0 0 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 45 43 44 43 44 44 42 49 52 50 50 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 22 19 22 20 19 15 25 30 24 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -75 -83 -81 -92 -104 -135 -140 -47 -4 58 178 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -9 -14 -12 -26 -21 -29 -8 64 47 59 40 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 1 2 17 43 -85 -77 -98 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1686 1671 1645 1565 1485 1329 1115 825 813 1338 1020 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.3 30.6 31.3 31.9 33.5 36.1 39.4 43.1 46.8 50.6 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 55.1 55.8 56.4 56.8 57.1 57.1 55.6 51.2 44.1 35.1 24.8 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 11 19 28 35 38 38 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 14 14 14 12 12 15 9 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -12. -19. -26. -34. -41. -46. -49. -51.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 3. 2. 1. -5. 7. 12. 4. 3. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 2. 3. -4. -14. -28. -24. -27. -45. -47. -49.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 30.0 55.1
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/27/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.77 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.47 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.41 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.06 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 793.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.16 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 63.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.37 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.1% 6.5% 4.7% 2.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Bayesian: 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.1% 2.2% 1.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/27/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/27/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 96 98 97 98 91 81 67 71 68 50 48 46
18HR AGO 95 94 96 95 96 89 79 65 69 66 48 46 44
12HR AGO 95 92 91 90 91 84 74 60 64 61 43 41 39
6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 86 79 69 55 59 56 38 36 34
NOW 95 86 80 77 76 69 59 45 49 46 28 26 24
IN 6HR 95 96 87 81 78 73 63 49 53 50 32 30 28
IN 12HR 95 96 98 89 83 79 69 55 59 56 38 36 34