* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LEE AL142017 09/28/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 72 66 58 48 34 26 20 16 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 85 80 72 66 58 48 34 26 20 16 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 85 80 75 69 64 54 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 23 27 36 37 31 29 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 2 -3 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 14 2 3 7 3 333 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.1 25.3 22.9 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 132 128 124 119 113 99 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 113 112 110 108 104 92 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.0 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 6 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 48 47 47 51 56 55 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 18 17 14 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -127 -134 -125 -90 -61 -68 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -14 -34 -6 19 11 3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -3 9 21 31 37 25 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1373 1281 1174 1050 880 851 1345 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 33.0 34.3 35.6 37.3 38.9 42.6 46.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 57.2 56.3 55.4 53.3 51.2 44.0 35.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 19 23 28 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 10 8 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 9 CX,CY: 1/ 9
T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -21. -26. -30. -34. -37. -38. -41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -12. -14. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -15. -17. -17. -18. -19. -19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -5. -13. -19. -27. -37. -51. -59. -65. -69. -72. -75. -77.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 33.0 57.2
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/28/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.04 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.44 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.57 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.12 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 678.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.27 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 31.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/28/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/28/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 80 72 66 58 48 34 26 20 16 DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 85 84 76 70 62 52 38 30 24 20 DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 85 82 81 75 67 57 43 35 29 25 DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 67 57 43 35 29 25 DIS DIS DIS
NOW 85 76 70 67 66 56 42 34 28 24 DIS DIS DIS
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT