* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MARIA AL152017 09/29/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 54 56 54 45 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 54 56 54 45 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 54 55 52 45 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 9 5 7 14 16 21 36 55 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 0 4 9 11 33 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 291 315 184 206 217 232 229 226 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 26.3 26.8 26.3 26.1 25.6 21.7 21.5 17.7 15.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 119 125 121 120 116 92 92 80 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 103 111 108 109 106 86 86 76 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -50.3 -50.4 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 46 43 43 41 39 38 28 20 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 27 27 29 30 26 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 86 101 96 74 63 44 1 -2 -99 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 30 21 25 33 35 42 3 -23 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 -22 -15 -21 9 -2 -39 -84 -265 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 616 706 732 797 829 707 1028 1592 842 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 36.9 37.2 37.5 38.3 39.0 41.3 44.2 47.3 50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 66.8 64.3 61.9 58.8 55.6 48.4 40.4 31.6 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 16 20 22 26 28 31 34 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 3 5 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 13 CX,CY: 13/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 789 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -3. -15. -19. -24. -29. -33.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -12. -13. -13. -12. -13.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 1. 1. -4. -15. -19. -20. -21. -22. -22.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. -1. -10. -33. -58. -64. -70. -74. -78.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 36.9 66.8
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/29/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.74 2.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.03 0.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.59 1.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.91 1.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.22 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.28 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 397.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.55 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 51.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.49 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 14.9% 11.6% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.9% 3.3% 1.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.6% 6.1% 4.5% 2.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/29/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/29/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 54 54 56 54 45 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 55 54 54 54 56 54 45 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 53 51 42 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 45 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT