* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* NATE AL162017 10/07/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 85 84 80 69 60 44 27 21 16 DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 80 83 73 54 42 32 30 30 27 29 29 DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 80 83 83 55 42 31 29 30 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 13 14 15 16 25 30 37 56 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 -2 3 5 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 291 299 266 251 249 256 251 264 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.4 28.7 27.9 26.9 25.7 24.0 22.5 16.4 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 161 149 138 126 115 103 95 76 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 151 134 124 113 104 94 87 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 4 1 5 2 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 77 73 65 62 57 51 45 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 19 17 13 13 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 36 28 7 -4 -9 -6 -9 -20 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 69 94 70 43 61 71 52 15 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 14 14 18 15 32 50 50 11 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 171 22 -24 -174 -360 -600 -286 -51 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 27.6 29.1 30.6 32.3 33.9 37.6 40.7 43.3 45.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 88.9 89.0 89.2 88.3 87.4 83.6 77.8 71.2 64.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 16 18 21 26 27 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 33 11 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 21 CX,CY: -8/ 19
T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 791 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -12. -19. -26. -29. -32. -33. -36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -14. -23. -24. -25. -26. -26.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.
PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -11. -16. -18. -19. -19. -20. -20.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 4. 0. -11. -20. -36. -53. -59. -64. -68. -70.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 27.6 88.9
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE 10/07/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.50 1.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 0.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.54 1.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 2.9
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.65 1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.15 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.46 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 260.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.68 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 17.7% 14.2% 9.5% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 17.7% 21.3% 13.6% 6.6% 2.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0%
Bayesian: 20.1% 4.3% 3.3% 0.7% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 17.1% 14.4% 10.4% 5.6% 999.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE 10/07/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE 10/07/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 83 73 54 42 32 30 30 27 29 29 DIS DIS
18HR AGO 80 79 69 50 38 28 26 26 23 25 25 DIS DIS
12HR AGO 80 77 76 57 45 35 33 33 30 32 32 DIS DIS
6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 58 48 46 46 43 45 45 16 16
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR 80 83 74 68 65 60 58 58 55 57 57 28 28
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT