* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* NATE AL162017 10/08/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 53 50 47 44 30 27 24 21 19 15 DIS
V (KT) LAND 60 47 38 33 30 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS
V (KT) LGEM 60 47 38 33 30 29 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 20 17 24 29 29 35 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 272 270 254 258 260 257 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.9 26.9 25.7 24.8 24.0 22.4 15.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 138 126 115 109 103 94 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 125 113 104 100 95 87 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 5 4 2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 66 62 57 55 52 48 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 17 16 16 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 8 -10 -22 -30 -17 -10 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 58 63 102 105 83 67 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 33 23 41 77 68 89 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) -22 -172 -365 -556 -572 -263 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 30.6 32.3 33.9 35.8 37.7 40.9 43.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 88.9 88.0 87.1 85.1 83.0 77.1 70.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 21 25 26 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 17 CX,CY: 0/ 17
T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 769 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -21. -24. -26.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12.
PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -30. -33. -36. -39. -41. -45. -49.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 30.6 88.9
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE 10/08/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 2.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.23 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.02 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.75 1.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.4
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.17 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.53 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 314.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.63 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 9.5% 7.5% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 3.5% 2.7% 1.9% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE 10/08/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE 10/08/2017 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 47 38 33 30 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS
18HR AGO 60 59 50 45 42 41 42 42 42 42 42 42 DIS
12HR AGO 60 57 56 51 48 47 48 48 48 48 48 48 18
6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 47 46 47 47 47 47 47 47 17
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT