* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* OPHELIA AL172017 10/10/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 56 59 66 73 76 74 73 76 79 78
V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 56 59 66 73 76 74 73 76 79 78
V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 55 60 68 74 74 71 68 66 66 65
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 16 12 10 8 10 6 10 14 17 14 9 16 37
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -6 -8 -7 -2 -3 -3 -1 -2 -5 1 6
SHEAR DIR 272 277 285 311 332 326 349 352 12 340 302 219 211
SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.7 25.1 24.7
POT. INT. (KT) 116 116 116 118 119 119 118 118 116 114 111 107 104
ADJ. POT. INT. 95 95 96 98 99 99 98 100 99 98 97 94 92
200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.6 -57.6 -57.4 -57.4 -57.1 -57.1 -56.2 -56.2 -55.7 -55.7 -55.6 -55.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 4 3 2
700-500 MB RH 52 50 51 52 52 53 53 52 53 54 55 48 42
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 21 21 23 26 27 25 25 27 30 33
850 MB ENV VOR -11 -16 -11 -2 -7 -8 -10 -18 -5 13 51 93 89
200 MB DIV 1 -5 -11 -16 -9 6 -12 -42 -16 11 33 58 31
700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -1 0 0 1 4 0 3 -2 -20 -33
LAND (KM) 2038 2056 2074 2116 2159 2260 2224 2131 2041 1908 1766 1574 1369
LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.0 31.9 31.5 31.1 30.2 29.8 30.0 30.8 31.6 32.5 33.5 34.6
LONG(DEG W) 38.9 38.6 38.4 38.3 38.2 37.9 37.4 36.3 34.9 33.2 31.1 28.3 25.1
STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 4 4 4 3 6 8 9 11 14 14
HEAT CONTENT 9 5 5 8 10 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 3. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 5. 5. 6. 9. 12.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 28. 31. 29. 28. 31. 34. 33.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 32.0 38.9
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/10/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.69 2.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 0.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.55 1.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.5
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.21 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.10 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 272.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.67 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 87.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 14.2% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 8.5% 4.7% 1.4% 0.1% 0.8% 1.2% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 7.6% 5.4% 0.5% 999.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/10/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/10/2017 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 52 56 59 66 73 76 74 73 76 79 78
18HR AGO 45 44 48 52 55 62 69 72 70 69 72 75 74
12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 48 55 62 65 63 62 65 68 67
6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 45 52 55 53 52 55 58 57
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT