* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* OPHELIA AL172017 10/12/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 76 75 76 74 73 75 80 84 76 61 53
V (KT) LAND 70 74 76 75 76 74 73 75 80 84 76 61 53
V (KT) LGEM 70 75 77 77 76 73 70 70 75 75 63 48 41
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 13 9 9 13 19 17 15 10 14 26 35 30 28
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -1 -3 -4 -1 -5 -5 -1 11 2 2 0
SHEAR DIR 323 353 351 342 353 2 337 310 238 190 160 157 208
SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.0 25.5 24.9 24.0 21.7 18.5 14.6 13.1
POT. INT. (KT) 116 114 114 114 115 114 111 108 102 91 80 74 72
ADJ. POT. INT. 97 95 96 96 97 99 98 97 93 84 75 70 69
200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.3 -57.0 -56.4 -56.2 -56.2 -55.8 -56.0 -55.6 -54.7 -54.1 -53.6 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.8 2.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 3 3 1 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 50 50 52 51 50 52 53 53 50 54 59 60 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 27 25 26 27 26 27 32 42 44 39 36
850 MB ENV VOR -4 -6 -3 -10 -8 5 27 95 114 85 56 32 10
200 MB DIV -18 -25 -7 -22 -22 -11 12 48 57 33 58 74 55
700-850 TADV 1 1 4 2 0 9 0 8 -53 -131 -164 -96 44
LAND (KM) 2082 2065 2049 2031 1995 1891 1702 1471 1161 740 479 155 125
LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.5 30.8 31.6 32.6 34.2 36.6 40.3 45.4 50.6 55.9
LONG(DEG W) 35.8 35.5 35.3 34.9 34.6 33.0 30.3 26.6 22.1 17.8 14.1 11.3 9.3
STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 6 10 15 19 24 27 28 28 27
HEAT CONTENT 3 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. -25. -28. -31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4.
PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 7. 19. 22. 15. 9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -6.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 5. 6. 4. 3. 5. 10. 14. 6. -9. -17.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 29.9 35.8
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/12/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.65 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.01 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.52 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.05 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 434.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.51 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 53.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.46 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 13.6% 9.3% 4.8% 1.1% 2.1% 2.3% 0.1%
Bayesian: 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 9.8% 3.1% 1.6% 999.0% 0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/12/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/12/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 74 76 75 76 74 73 75 80 84 76 61 53
18HR AGO 70 69 71 70 71 69 68 70 75 79 71 56 48
12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 66 64 63 65 70 74 66 51 43
6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 61 59 58 60 65 69 61 46 38
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT